Shota Imanaga needs to live up to his projections if the Cubs want to win in 2025

One of the main selling points on the Chicago Cubs continuing to add starting pitching is possible regression from left-hander Shota Imanaga. After all, we're talking about a guy who, as a 30-year-old rookie, went 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA in a team-leading 173 1/3 innings of work en route to a fifth-place finish in National League Cy Young voting.

That makes sense. After all, the league will have more data on Imanaga and his plan of attack and the hope is Wrigley Field won't play as pitcher-friendly as it was a year ago. Those two factors combined could lead to things leveling off a bit for Imanaga. Except, according to multiple projection models, including Steamer, the data suggests something to the contrary.

More or less, the models anticipate Imanaga replicating his breakout rookie season - good news for manager Craig Counsell and the Cubs. Steamer pegs Imanaga for 180 innings and a 3.74 FIP that's nearly identical to last year's 3.72 mark. His strikeout and walk rates are almost spot-on, as well, another encouraging sign heading into 2025.

Part of what makes Imanaga so projectable is how he gets outs. He's a control artist, walking only four percent of batters last season, which ranked in the top three percent of the league. Paired with an elite chase rate and it's not hard to see why hitters struggled so much against him in his first go-round in the big leagues.

Without a major rotation addition - or at least one that feels like a legitimate, reliable upgrade - the Cubs are going to need the best Imanaga and Justin Steele have to offer atop the rotation. Another arm, especially one you could slot in to start a postseason game, would change the entire feel and make-up of this pitching staff.

Regardless of whether or not that happens, it's hard to envision a scenario where the Cubs win the division for the first time since 2020 or bring home a postseason victory for the first time since 2017 without Imanaga pitching well. This rotation is built around their pair of southpaws at the top - and if one of them falters, it could lead to things quickly spiraling out of control.