Chicago Cubs fans always seem to be looking for a "gotcha" moment when it comes to the decisions made by Jed Hoyer. It's why many are already preparing their torches for when the Cubs point to Shota Imanaga accepting the qualifying offer of $22.025MM as the reason why they weren't able to spend actively this offseason.
One source is already setting the stage for that excuse, with veteran Chicago Sports radio personality George Ofman suggesting that he's been told the Cubs were "stunned" that Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer. Ofman adds that the Cubs were hoping to net a draft pick with Imanaga signing elsewhere, and that his return will impact their spending this winter.
First and foremost, the hit rate on Ofman's reporting on Cubs musings has been far from credible. If you asked him last offseason, the Cubs were never a serious trade suitor for Kyle Tucker. Tucker is the outfielder who earned Silver Slugger and All-Star recognition with the Cubs last season.
Nonetheless, until the Cubs start making moves, "reports" like the one Ofman offered will continue to be a talking point.
Shota Imanaga's qualifying offer decision has Chicago Cubs ready to cry foul of Jed Hoyer's front office.
There likely isn't a scenario where the Cubs were completely surprised that Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer. Even after the Cubs turned down their end of the options in Imanaga's original deal, the initial speculation was that they would be interested in a return on a short-term deal. Considering how Imanaga's 2025 season ended, it validates why the Cubs were concerned about how Imanaga would age three years from now.
Similarly, other teams likely had that same concern, so it would have been a level of incompetence that is beyond the Cubs to suggest that they misevaluated Imanaga's market. As for the Cubs banking on netting a draft pick, that feels like Ofman offering his assumption, and ignoring the reality that the Cubs are already going to receive one once Tucker signs elsewhere.
Given that fact, it feels lazy to suggest that the potential of adding a draft pick was the only reason why the Cubs extended the qualifying offer to Imanaga.
And, yes, Imanaga's decision certainly will have an impact on the Cubs' spending this offseason to some extent. Still, they have more than enough space available to follow through with their original offseason plans. After Imanaga's return, the Cubs have over $52MM in space before the first level of the CBT.
There's a bit of recency bias when it comes to how Imanaga's qualifying offer decision is being discussed. Yes, he struggled to close out the 2025 season, but after the first half of the season, he was sitting with a 2.65 ERA. If that is the pitcher the Cubs have for most of the 2026 season, $22.025MM would be good value.
Now, to be clear, if we reach spring training and there is no other addition to the top of the Cubs' rotation, the current criticism will prove to be valid. But, for now, Imanaga is back with the Cubs, and there remains a path forward where that could be a good thing once the offseason is completed.
