Cubs’ 2026 payroll outlook gets murkier after Shota Imanaga return

Shota Imanaga is returning to the Chicago Cubs on a one-year deal worth $22.025MM. Imanaga was among four free-agent players to accept the qualifying offer from their respective teams, and for the Cubs, it does bring back into focus an uncomfortable question. When the impression was that Imanaga would be pitching elsewhere in 2026, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that they were going to be an active spender in free agency this winter.

No, the Cubs likely weren't going to set the market for any of the top free-agent starting pitcher, but the amount of payroll space they had without Imanaga on their books made it clear they had the room for a big-ticket addition to the roster. Now, with over $22MM taken away from their 2026 budget, some are rightly wondering if there will be an impact on the team's offseason plans.

2026 Chicago Cubs payroll projections following Shota Imanaga accepting the qualifying offer.

The short answer is it shouldn't be. Using FanGraphs' roster resource, the Cubs' luxury tax payroll for 2026 is currently estimated to be $191,490,177. This includes players under contract for 2026, the projected amounts for arbitration-eligible players, as well as the projected salaries for the players who aren't eligible for arbitration yet.

The first level of the luxury tax is set at $244MM for the 2026 season, giving the Cubs just over $52MM in space to work with this offseason. That is assuming that the version of the Cubs going all in means approaching the first level of the luxury tax, but not quite going over. Of course, Jed Hoyer and Co. like to leave themselves room for moves during the season, so it would be fair to assume that the true number the Cubs may spend this offseason is around $40MM.

In other words, for the starting pitchers at the top of this offseason's free-agent class, the Cubs should still have the space to sign one and have room left over.

It would also be unfair to assume the Cubs are upset that Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer, or weren't envisioning a scenario this offseason where he did. Part of extending the qualifying offer to a player is planning for the scenario where they do accept it, as unlikely as past years would suggest it to be.

We shouldn't enter spring training with the Cubs pointing to Imanaga's decision as the reason why they didn't spend this offseason. If they do, there will be much larger questions that need to be asked.