Shota Imanaga Qualifying Offer decision unlocks a clear path for Cubs in free agency

The Chicago Cubs gained some clarity on Shota Imanaga's status, as the veteran starting pitcher accepted the team's qualifying offer on Tuesday. Considering the struggles Imanaga had to close out the regular season and becoming an afterthought on the team's pitching staff in the playoffs, there was some speculation that he would accept the qualifying offer as a way to return to a situation he's familiar with before trying to cash in on free agency next offseason.

Speaking at the GM Meetings last week, Jed Hoyer left the door open that Imanaga could return to the team this offseason.

For the Cubs, it seemed the holding point was the third year on Imanaga's three-year option worth $57MM. Now, they will have a year to get Imanaga fixed, and if they do, the two sides could iron out a multi-year deal before next offseason.

Shota Imanaga accepts the Cubs' Qualifying Offer, but that shouldn't change offseason plans.

Even with Imanaga accepting the Cubs' qualifying offer, the team will still need to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Imanaga may be back, but he remains the pitcher Craig Counsell avoided in Game 5 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers.

With the Cubs likely receiving a draft pick from Kyle Tucker signing elsewhere this offseason, they don't appear to be deterred from Qualifying Offer rejects this offseason. The Cubs have been linked to Dylan Cease, Michael King, Framber Vladez, and Ranger Suarez this offseason. All received qualifying offers from their respective teams at the start of the season.

Since the Cubs avoided paying the luxury tax in 2025, they would only be forced to part with their second-highest draft pick and $500K from their international bonus pool if they were to sign a player this offseason who rejected a qualifying offer.

In an ideal world, the Cubs enter the 2026 season with Imanaga providing stability at the backend of their rotation. Imanaga's underlying metrics to close out 2025 were not strong, and the Cubs' pitching infrastructure has some work to do in order to get him back on track. Until that is accomplished, he can't be viewed as a definitive answer for the team's need in the rotation.