Regression from one of last year's breakout Cubs could be offset quite easily

Nearly half of Carson Kelly's career 7.7 bWAR came during his breakout 2025 season with the Chicago Cubs so it feels safe to assume he might level off this year.

You might remember, the Chicago native went on an absolute tear early in the year, posting a 1.347 OPS in March and April, smacking seven home runs and driving in 21 runs in just 17 games. He got hot again in July, but it was very much a tale of two halves for Kelly, who posted an .899 OPS prior to the All-Star break and just a .596 mark afterwards.

Defensively, Kelly controlled the run game and graded out well above average in blocking. His framing left something to be desired, but with the ABS challenge system coming to MLB this year, that becomes somewhat less important.

The return of Miguel Amaya is an early-season Cubs story to watch

No one thinks Kelly is the player he was for five or so weeks to open the 2025 campaign, but few think he's a sub-.600 OPS player either. He'll fall somewhere in-between, and with the highly anticipated return of Miguel Amaya, a regression to the mean from Kelly might not be a disaster for the Cubs.

Steamer projects Kelly to be a league average offensive player this year (100 wRC+) a significant step back from last year's production (115 wRC+). Meanwhile, Amaya who got off to a torrid start last year before suffering an oblique strain that was followed by a season-ending ankle sprain later in the summer, is projected for a 96 wRC+, but there's definitely potential for more from the 26-year-old.

Last year, to take the load off Kelly, the Cubs brought in Reese McGuire, who filled the backup role admirably and helped the team weather some of Kelly's cold stretches. But there's no question there's more upside in the return of Amaya, who has played in more than 100 games just once to this point in his big-league career.

In an ideal world, Amaya establishes himself as the primary catcher by this summer, but it's way too soon to make such a prediction. The long and short of it is clear: with Kelly and Amaya, the Cubs have a pair of quality receivers that should make the catcher position a stable spot on the depth chart, with the potential to be an area of strength.