Ranking the Cubs' most likely free agent signings based on Jed Hoyer's history

Free agency started on Monday, but Major League Baseball made sure to have a subtle reminder that there will be a lockout after December 1. Still, before then, the Chicago Cubs will need to be active. They need multiple starting pitchers, perhaps two starting outfielders, possibly a starting catcher, and, if they're lucky, a high-leverage arm to add to the bullpen.

That's a lot of work to be done in less than a month's time. It's also why no one is really certain what the Cubs are going to do this month. The predictions from MLB Trade Rumors were all over the board, but ESPN's insiders did hint that the Cubs could have an aggressive move in them this offseason.

Grouping the Cubs' free-agent targets based on how Jed Hoyer has operated in the past

We wanted to take some time before the moves get started in earnest, to map out the Cubs' path in free agency. It's largely going to based on how Jed Hoyer has operated in the past. There will be three groups; targets that can probably be ruled, targets only if the price is right, and the free agents most likely to catch Hoyer's eyes. For the targets, it's going to be relative to what the Cubs are in need of.

These free agents likely can be ruled out for the Cubs this offseason

• Seiya Suzuki
• Randy Arozarena
• Ryan Jeffers
• Shota Imanaga
• Adrian Morejon

Starting with Suzuki and Arozarena. As it currently stands, both are at the top of the free-agent market in terms of hitters available. Both are also right-handed hitters, and that likely points to each receiving a deal that approaches $100 million. The Cubs have a need in the outfield, but with what's needed in the starting rotation, it's hard to imagine Hoyer is all that interested in giving out this lucrative of a contract to a position player this offseason.

Similarly, while it hasn't been a need over the past two years, Hoyer has a specific type when looking for catchers. The preference is for catchers who have a strong rapport with a pitching staff, and match the run-prevention model that is the theme for the front office's roster construction. Jeffers is also going to be priced near the top of the market for catchers this offseason, and that's almost never been how Hoyer has addressed the position.

Given the need for pitching the Cubs have, there aren't many starting pitchers who can be ruled out. That said, Imanaga is one of them. The Cubs have expressed caution with his usage over the past two years due to his fly-ball tendencies, and when they've needed pitching the playoffs, Imanaga never appeared to be a part of that solution.

For what the Cubs haven't had in the bullpen over the past two years, Morejon is a clear fit. He's a high-leverage left-handed reliever with a fastball approaching triple digits and the ability to frequently miss bats. The problem is that Morejon is in line to receive a multi-year deal that could be north of $75 million. Hoyer has only been willing to come close to that level once, and it was failed pursuit of Tanner Scott. Considering the up-and-down nature of Scott's tenure in LA, that figures to be more fuel to the fire for why Hoyer will avoid Morejon this offseason.

If the price is right, the Cubs are going to be in the market for these free agents

• Tarik Skubal
• Michael King
• Casey Mize
• Carson Kelly
• Ian Happ

The word is that the Cubs want Tarik Skubal "badly". It got a direct mention from ESPN's Jeff Passan, and while that's not nothing, some Cubs fans are glossing over the fact that Passan even mentioned the Cubs don't know if they can go to the financial level it would take to sign Skubal. Meaning, for better or worse, this is the category Skubal falls in. He's a perfect fit for what the Cubs need, but there's nothing in Hoyer's spending history to suggest that he would go outside of his comfort level to his degree for a starting pitcher.

Similarly, given his strong finish to the regular season, and how dominant he looked during the playoffs, Michael King is going to get paid this offseason. The Cubs were connected to King last offseason, but again, it seemed that the bidding never matched what Hoyer was looking to do for the rotation. The need is more dire for the Cubs this time around, so perhaps that changes, but it feels like Cubs drew a line in the sand with their pursuit last offseason, and Hoyer can be stubborn in that sense.

Casey Mize is someone the Cubs were connected to at the trade deadline, so he's not someone that can be ruled out. That being said, there are a few things to consider. He struggles with a velocity dip at the end of last season, and he was simply bad during his time with the Padres. He also doesn't miss bats at an elite level, and that's also true for his ability to keep the ball on the ground. For what the Cubs are looking for, it would seem that they look pursue other options before considering Mize. If his market craters, then it would make sense for the Cubs to get involved.

It's a weak free-agent market for catchers, and that is likely going to put Kelly in a position to get a multi-year offer. The Cubs likely would be willing to step a little bit outside of their comfort zone to bring back Kelly, considering the intangibles that would also return with him, but if he's paid near the top of the market for his position, the Cubs likely will be willing to move forward with Miguel Amaya and Owen Ayers.

By not extending him a qualifying offer, the Cubs took a hard stance with what Happ's role would be if he were to return to the team. It would be as a platoon player. The Cubs probably would be open to Happ returning on a discounted deal, but he should get a multi-year offer from another team.

These are the free agents that the Chicago Cubs are going to be involved with

• Freddy Peralta
• Sonny Gray
• Kaima Taira
• Clay Holmes
• David Peterson

No surprise, every free agent mentioned here is a starting pitcher.

My assumption is that the Cubs may prefer their big-ticket addition to the starting rotation to be Freddy Peralta. There's the connection to Craig Counsell, and with that, the familiarity with pitching in the National League Central. The question with Peralta is what to make of his 2026 season. Despite his run in the playoffs, he never really looked like the top-of-the-rotation pitcher he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. Was that a blip or something to be concerned with? The Cubs will need to answer that question but for their price range, Peralta is lined up perfectly for them.

Given his age, Gray shouldn't be that expensive of an option. He's a year or two away from retirement, and eyeing a World Series run. Of course, whether or not the Cubs are an actual World Series contender is another question. But setting that to the side, Gray is someone the Cubs have always been fascinated with, and even with retirement looming, he's still an excellent starting pitcher. He posted a 2.72 ERA across 29 starts last year, keeping the ball on the ground 46% of the time.

A fastball sitting in the upper-90s, an ability to miss bats, and a ground-ball rate hovering around 50% over the last two seasons in Japan, Kaima Taira checks all the boxes for what the Cubs should be looking for this offseason. He's been posted an needs to sign before December 1, so there's no time to waste for the Cubs.

Holmes and Peterson essentially fall into the same bucket. They are starting pitchers who thrive by keeping the ball on the ground. Both are probably on the Cubs' radar this offseason, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see both return to Chicago.

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