Cubs extend Seiya Suzuki qualifying offer but his exit feels inevitable

The Chicago Cubs have extended the qualifying offer to Seiya Suzuki, but that likely doesn't change the overall outlook of his free agency. While it's possible this is the last offseason in which baseball actually has the qualifying offer rule, the expectation is that the process specific to this year's free-agent class will be grandfathered into the new CBA.

In other words, assuming Suzuki rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, the Cubs will receive a comp pick following the fourth round of the 2027 MLB Draft. The qualifying offer is priced at $23.15 million, and while thats around the AAV for what to expect from Suzuki's next contract, he's going to have multi-year offers on the table.

Suzuki is arguably the best position-player on the market. Some may call it in favor of Randy Arozarena, but Suzuki was a Gold Glove finalist this season, and while he didn't win the award, it's one advantage he does hold over Arozarena.

The expectation is that Suzuki will have a healthy market this offseason. The Toronto Blue Jays have strongly been connected to Suzuki since the end of the regular season, and a recent report suggests the Boston Red Sox could also have interest. Adding to that, ESPN's Buster Olney also hinted that Suzuki could have the most leverage of any position player available this offseason.

Cubs hand out the qualifying offer to Seiya Suzuki, but he might be priced out of their interest level

This isn't going to be a case like last offseason when the Cubs gave Shota Imanaga a qualifying offer, not really expecting him to accept. While it worked it out in the Cubs' favor, there was an inherent risk in his return initially. Especially with the idea that having over $20 million allocated for Imanaga could have interrupted their offseason plans.

With Suzuki, there's no need for him to explore the market before determining whether or not to accept the offer. He's a lock to reject it, and that will probably end the relationship between the two sides.

For the Cubs, generally speaking, they probably would love to have Suzuki back. The hurdle is that most of his contract projections have him receiving a contract north of $100 million. Considering the need the Cubs have for pitching this offseason, it seems unlikely they go to that level for a position player.

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