Comparing Shota Imanaga's incredible start to the three best pitchers in Cubs history

Chicago Cubs rookie starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has been great to start the 2024 season. Prior to his last start, he’d yet to allow a run, and even after that start, he’s still carrying a 3-0 record through four games. The question isn’t whether or not Imanaga’s start is good.

Over the last 35 years, there have been dozens of great pitchers for the Cubs, but there are three in particular that come to mind immediately: Greg Maddux, Mark Prior, and Jake Arrieta.

For the purpose of this article, we’re going to look at those three pitchers' best seasons for the Cubs and compare their first four games of those seasons to Imanaga’s first four games of 2024.

Greg Maddux 1992 Season

Maddux: 3-1, 2.79 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, .223/.283/.252 slash-line against
Imanaga: 3-0, 0.84 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, .175/.195/.238 slash-line against

In 1992, Greg Maddux played his last season in his first stint with the Chicago Cubs. He was 26 years old and would go on to a 20-11 record with a 2.18 ERA across 268 innings pitched as he earned his second All-Star recognition and first Cy Young for the Cubs. 

That being said, his .750 winning percentage was less than Imanaga’s. His ERA was nearly two runs higher, his strikeout rate is lower while his walk rate is nearly three times as high and all three of the slash-line statistics were higher than Imanaga’s as well.

Greg Maddux is a Hall of Famer and when you compare his best season as a Cub to Imanaga’s first year as a Cub, the stats heavily favor Imanaga.

Mark Prior 2003 Season

Prior: 3-1, 1.50 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, .181/.225/.238 slash-line against
Imanaga: 3-0, 0.84 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, .175/.195/.238 slash-line against

Mark Prior was the prince who was promised. After a rocky rookie season in 2002, Prior bounced back for his best season of his career in 2003. He went 18-6 that season with a 2.43 ERA over 211.1 innings pitched and was elected to his lone All-Star game appearance.

Through the first four games of that season, however, he wasn’t as good as Imanaga had been in 2024. He had a lower winning percentage, an ERA that was nearly twice as high, more walks and a worse slash-line against in every category except slugging percentage (where they were tied).

Mark Prior had the potential to be the most important Chicago Cub in the history of the franchise, and his 2003 season offered a peek into what that potential could eventually become. Even with that incredible season, he wasn’t as good of a pitcher to start the season as Imanaga had been in 2024.

Jake Arrieta 2015 Season

Arrieta: 3-1, 2.03 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, .184/.238/.265 slash-line against
Imanaga: 3-0, 0.84 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, .175/.195/.238 slash-line against

Jake Arrieta put together some of the best pitching performances in the history of this storied franchise. In 2016, he helped end the longest championship drought in American sports history, but in 2015, he was untouchable on his way to a Cy Young award. He went 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA over 229 innings pitched that season, so surely he had to be better than Imanaga… right?

Actually, no. Imanaga’s 2024 performance has surpassed the start of Arrieta’s 2015 season in every category. Arrieta’s ERA was nearly three times as high, his walk rate was three times as high and he had a lower strikeout rate and worse slash-line against in every stat.

In the history of the Cubs' organization, five pitchers have earned Cy Young honors while pitching on the North Side. Neither of those players nor Mark Prior had as hot of a start to their season as Shota Imanaga has had to start 2024. 

Does that mean that Imanaga is on his way to the sixth Cy Young season in Cubs history?

Maybe not, but if he has even 70% as good of a season as any of the three seasons listed in this piece, then the Cubs got an insane bargain in free agency this off-season.