Chicago Cubs Top Prospects: Midseason Top 30 Chicago Cubs Prospects (#5-1)

Number 4

Matt Shaw SS

Age: 21 Years Old

Level: N/A

Joined the organization via: 1st Round Pick in 2023 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: (College) .341/.445/.697 24 HR, 20 2B, 18 SB, 69 RBI, 80 R, 43/42 BB/K

We’ve written extensively about Matt Shaw this year. You can find our thoughts about him prior to the draft here, and our thoughts after he was drafted here. What I can tell you is that we really like Matt Shaw. Not only did the Cubs make the statistically smart choice by drafting the college hitter, they chose a really solid up-the-middle college hitter that should make it to the majors in a short period of time.

The thing you see all the time is “Don’t worry about positions, it’ll work itself out.” That’s true to an extent, but the Cubs have Nico Hoerner locked up through 2026 and have Dansby Swanson locked up well beyond that so it doesn’t appear that there is an easy path playing time at either second base or shortstop in the near future.

When you look at the scouting reports for Shaw there are questions about his arm for third base but there was an interesting argument made on “On To Waveland” the Cubs podcast at the Athletic when they said that as long as his arm is stronger than Nick Madrigal (who was playing a perfectly acceptable third base prior to his injury) then he will be totally fine at the hot corner and most scouts agree that it is.

If we work under the assumption that Shaw has the capability of playing third base defensively then we only need to worry about whether or not the bat will play at the major league level and I don’t see any reason to believe it wouldn’t. He hits for average and hits for power while stealing bases and he’s done it with a wooden bat on the Cape where he was named MVP. 

Shaw is one of the rare names on this list that offers both floor and ceiling. He’s someone that I see as at least an MLB regular and at best an all-star caliber third baseman and he has the ability to start reaching that potential as early as midway through the 2024 MLB season. 

Number 3

Jackson Ferris LHP

Age: 19 Years Old

Level: A Myrtle Beach

Joined the organization via: 2nd Round Pick in 2022 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: 31.0 IP 3.19 ERA 40/16 K/BB

Jackson Ferris is not the best player in the Cubs system but he is my favorite. Years ago the Cubs drafted Kyle Schwarber in the first round and in doing so saved enough money to be able to draft prep pitchers Carson Sands, Justin Steele, and Dylan Cease. I’m not going to sit here and say that when the Cubs drafted Cade Horton last year and signed him under the slot and used that money to sign prep pitchers Nazier Mule and Jackson Ferris is the exact same thing, but it has the potential to be.

Ferris has been as dominant as any player in the system, albeit against lesser competition at Myrtle Beach. He’s struggled with the walks in his last couple of starts and the Cubs are treating him with kid gloves a little bit as his average appearance has lasted less than three innings, but when they’ve let him loose he’s been extremely impressive. 

I understand that there are a lot of people that will use the fact that a Low-A pitcher is ranked higher on this list than two guys knocking on the door at AAA to invalidate it, but this is an instance of star power outweighing a high floor. If we look at the best-case scenario for guys like Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks, etc. I see middle of the rotation on a division-winning team or a number two on a solid wild-card team. 

When I look at Jackson Ferris I see a guy that could be a legitimate ace, someone that has the possibility to not only be the best pitcher in our system but potentially the best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball and anchor a staff that is World Series bound. 

He is not close to reaching that potential right now. He may never get to that potential because his arm could fall off. However, when I look at this system there is one player that jumps off of the page every time I see him and it’s Jackson Ferris. 

Number 2

Kevin Alcantara

Age: 21 Years Old

Level: A+

Joined the organization via: Anthony Rizzo Trade with New York Yankees

2023 Stats: .276/.328/.452 9 HR, 20 2B, 2 3B, 13 SB, 49 RBI, 50 R

Kevin Alcantara was our choice for the best hitter of the first half at High-A South Bend. He began the season looking like it was going to be a complete dud. However, when we got to June he dominated to a .306/.379/.518 slash line and in July, at the time of writing, he’s carrying a .405/.479/.667 slash line over 42 at-bats with seven extra-base hits.

Superstar players can’t be kept down. Calling the beginning of the season a slump may be a little bit of an understatement considering it lasted for the first two months of the season, but for a player of Alcantara’s caliber that’s all, it is a slump. There was never doubt that he’d come out of it because he was simply too skilled and talented not to figure it out. 

He appears, to me at least, to be tied to Pete Crow-Armstrong. I don’t think we’ll see the two of them at the same level until that level is the major league level. I also think that Jed Hoyer is smart enough to soften the blow of dealing Cody Bellinger by showing us that the future is close so the way I see it is that in the span of about three days, we’ll see Bellinger get traded to a contender, Crow-Armstrong called up to AAA and Alcantara called up to AA. 

Regardless of his path to the majors, Alcantara is a player that is a combination of Shaw and Ferris in that I think that his skillset will get him to the majors at least but those same tools give him the potential to be an All-Star caliber player on a World Series bound team. In a system that doesn’t have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara absolutely could have been the top player in the organization and he could be on the major league roster by opening day 2025. 

Number 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong OF

Age: 21 Years Old

Level: AA Tennessee Smokies

Joined the organization via: Javier Baez Trade with New York Mets

2023 Stats: .283/.360/.506 11 HR, 17 2B, 5 3B, 23 SB, 55 RBI, 59 R

Like I said with Alcantara, if Pete Crow-Armstrong wasn’t in this system, Alcantara would be the top player in the organization. That’s not necessarily specific to Alcantara though because I’m not sure I could count five prospects in all of baseball that I’d rather have than PCA. 

Crow-Armstrong is hitting for average and power this season with 23 stolen bases while playing above-average defense in center field. He was named to the MLB Futures Game and he’s shown his ability to hit in clutch situations with multiple walk-off hits so far already this season. I’m not sure what else he has to do to earn the call-up to AAA Iowa but it could come at any moment. 

He has legit 20/20 potential considering his plus bat speed and his plus footspeed on the bases and I wouldn’t put it against him to reach that plateau several times in his career. 

Crow-Armstrong is in a difficult position. He’s the top prospect and the first Cubs prospect in the MLB top-ten since the World Series winning crop came through years ago. Matt Mervis has already experienced what it’s like to have that level of expectation attached to your debut, but Crow-Armstrong has it even tougher because not only is he a top prospect but he’ll be replacing a gold-glove/silver-slugger/former MVP center fielder in Cody Bellinger.

There is a chance that the moment will be too big for him whenever he does get that call to the majors, but if there’s anyone in the system that will be able to handle it, I’d bet on him. The tangibles are impressive but the intangibles are even more so and he has the ability to join Dansby Swanson at the major league level as the leaders in the clubhouse on what should be a very good complete Cubs team at the mid-point of the 2024 season.

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