Chicago Cubs Rumors: Reflecting on the price the Cubs should have paid for Juan Soto

What did the Padres receive in the deal?

It’s hard to say what was the key piece in this deal but Michael King is as good of a place to start as any. He has a career 3.48 ERA and he’s been a similar player this season in San Diego putting together 73 innings of 3.82 ball. He’s a completely fine player, but he’s 29 and only under team control through 2025.

Jhony Brito has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in the 19 games he’s played in this year for the Padres. He’s carrying a 3.77 ERA over 31 innings, but he’s only struck out 17 batters, so there’s been plenty to be desired there. 

Randy Vasquez has not been great. He’s had a 5.74 ERA over 26.2 innings, and much like Brito, he has not had the kind of stuff that generates strikeouts. He pitched in six games (all starts) for the Padres in 2024 but currently finds himself in Triple-A where his ERA is even worse at 7.45 over 19.1 innings pitched there.

Drew Thorpe is the only pitcher of the bunch with real prospect pedigree, as he was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to 2024, coming in as high as number 45, according to Baseball Prospectus. Ironically, Thorpe never threw a pitch for the Padres as he was later included in the package that stole Dylan Cease away from the Chicago White Sox but he’s been exceptional in Double-A for the White Sox this season as he’s carried a 1.35 ERA over 60 innings. 

Finally,, Kyle Higashioka is a 34-year-old backup catcher with a bit of pop. He’s hit .151/.167/.302 this season and is worth -0.1 WAR. 

What would a similar Cubs offer have looked like?

If we work under the assumption that the Cubs could have gotten on board with Juan Soto’s $31 million dollar 2024 salary as well as Trent Grisham’s $5.5 million this season then the Cubs would need to find a package that essentially equated to:

1. A really good top-50 prospect, preferably a pitcher (Thorpe)
2. A competent MLB-level starter/swing-man type with a little bit of upside (King)
3. A couple of high-floor/low-upside pitchers that are close to the majors (Brito and Vasquez)
4. A backup catcher who couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat (Higashioka)

At the time of the initial article we wrote we threw out the idea of RHP Ben Brown, OF Kevin Alcantara, 1B Matt Mervis and a lower-level lottery ticket type player.

That being said, the Padres seemed to focus on players with a lower ceiling but also a greater chance to make it to the Majors in 2024 so some of those prospects wouldn’t match what they were looking for.

An updated offer would be RHP’s Cade Horton, Hayden Wesneski, Daniel Palencia, Michael Arias and catcher Yan Gomes. 

Cade Horton is perceived to be a better pitching prospect (17th to Thorpe’s 54th according to MLB Pipeline) and is closer to the Majors in Triple-A than Thorpe is in Double-A. 

Hayden Wesneski has a 2.80 ERA compared to Michael King’s 3.82 ERA this season and has more team control than King at a younger age. 

Brito and Vasquez are tough to quantify but Palencia and Arias have a significantly higher upside and greater K/9 potential than those two while maybe being one step further away from the majors. 

Finally, Yan Gomes would only be a slight downgrade from Higashioka with his .148/.176/.235 slash-line. 

Would it have been worth it for the Cubs to do that deal?

Yes.

I legitimately hesitate to write anything else on the subject, but yes. Unequivocally and absolutely yes.

Juan Soto is slashing .319/.422/.605 with 17 homers.

He is the offense that the Cubs are lacking and he’s only 25 years old. He’s the kind of player that the franchise could build around regardless of what his contract demands are after the season and all it would cost the Cubs is one great prospect, a good swingman, a couple of depth bullpen pieces and a backup catcher.

Don’t confuse quantity with quality. The Cubs needed and still need star-power and a deal like that would have absolutely provided it.