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Cubs Rumors: Chicago eying a potential Juan Soto trade

How much is one of the best young players in baseball worth to a team that desperately wants to turn the corner and return to the playoffs?

By Riley Cavanagh |
/ Quinn Harris/GettyImages
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When we look at the areas that the Chicago Cubs can improve it’s hard not to find power production from the heart of the order and bullpen deficiencies glaring right back at us. That being said, regardless of perceived areas for growth, when you have an opportunity to add a superstar you have to at least do your due diligence.

Juan Soto is the superstar the Cubs should be doing their due diligence on. The Padres are allegedly shopping the outfielder and with rumors swirling that their ownership team took out loans to pay their players in the 2023 season, it’s not hard to understand why they’d be looking to recoup some of the insane value they gave up to trade for Soto midway through the 2022 season.

Does Soto make sense on paper for this Cubs team? No. Jed Hoyer doesn’t like paying outrageous prices even for his own players, just ask Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant or Kyle Schwarber, and Soto allegedly turned down $440 million dollars from the Nationals less than two years ago. 

That being said, Soto is the exception to just about every rule. He came into the league as a 19-year-old and didn’t just get a cup of coffee. He played in 116 games and hit 22 homers while maintaining a slash line of .292/.406/.517. His career slash line is .284/.421/.524 and last season he played all 162 games on his way to his third all-star appearance prior to his 25th birthday. 

There are a fair number of critics that will point to Soto’s willingness to draw walks rather than swing the bat and wonder if the Cubs would be exacerbating a toothless lineup with regard to their power numbers. That being said, Soto hit 35 homers last season and added another 33 extra-base hits on top of it. Sure, his OBP from last season outpaces the Cubs' best producer Ian Happ by nearly 50 points, but his slugging percentage would have been second only to Cody Bellinger on the 2023 squad. 

From a talent perspective the move is a no-brainer, but the questions become:

How much would the Cubs have to pay in prospect currency?

For the deal to be reasonable the cost must be decreased significantly from what the Padres originally paid, which was essentially two top prospects that were major league ready and two top prospects that were further away. That being said, the Padres were receiving two and a half years of control of Soto AND the ability to give him a qualifying offer if all else failed to try to earn some level of compensation if he left. The Cubs would be trading for a year of his services at a higher arbitration cost than the Padres have paid and they’d lack the ability to give him a qualifying offer. 

How much would an extension cost the Cubs after the 2024 season?

If the Cubs were to offer an extension to Soto it would likely be in the club’s best interest to try to get it done prior to Shohei Ohtani signing. While Ohtani is a unicorn in that he’s a potential Hall of Famer as a pitcher and as a batter separately, players and agents don’t care about that. Soto is four years younger than Ohtani and hasn’t had the injury history that may lead to Ohtani eventually being less valuable as a pitcher. If that were the case then the argument could be made that Soto will be at least as valuable as Ohtani in a long-term deal. 

So what does a deal look like? 

Soto was traded from the Nationals along with first baseman Josh Bell for SP MacKenzie Gore, SS C.J. Abrams, OF Robert Hassell III, OF James Wood, SP Jarlin Susana, and 1B Luke Voit. Considering the aforementioned differences along with the fact that the Padres appear incentivized to sell the prospect package from the Cubs would likely include SP Ben Brown, OF Kevin Alcantara, and 1B Matt Mervis as well as a lower-level lottery ticket type. 

As for an extension, that may be tough to nail down. He’s allegedly turned down a 15-year $440 million dollar deal from the Nationals. That deal would have paid him a little over $29 million per year and that’s likely where the problem comes in. However, now that he’s older and a contract of that length would pay him through his age-40 season, he may be more likely to take a deal like that. Let’s say that the Cubs could knock down the years to 13 but up the AAV to $35 million they’d be looking at a 13-year $455 million dollar contract.

Is a player of his caliber worth three top-ten prospects and $455 million dollars with the risk that he walks at the end of this season and the Cubs recoup nothing? Only time will tell, but baseball history tends to show that star players are worth whatever you have to trade for them.

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