A Cody Bellinger hot streak to close out the season has big implications for the Cubs

Injuries and subpar power output have Cody Bellinger in toss-up territory when it comes to whether or not he'll opt out of his deal with the Chicago Cubs at season's end. A well-rounded player on the right side of 30 with above-average offensive production is a commodity, to be sure, but after a chilly reception in free agency last winter, he may return to Wrigleyville for a third go-round in 2025 in hopes of having a monster season.

Heading into Sunday's national matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, Bellinger is riding a hot streak. Since returning from an IL stint due to a fractured finger on his left hand, the former Rookie of the Year and MVP is 8-for-21 (.381) with five runs, two homers and five RBI. That power has been a welcome change of pace for him, with a slugging percentage down almost 100 points from last year.

Bellinger finding his stroke and looking more like that middle-of-the-order bat that carried the Cubs' offense during its second-half resurgence last summer probably won't be enough to save this team's 2024 season - but it could have a major effect on what next year's team looks like.

Cody Bellinger's opt-out decision could still go either way

If Bellinger opts out, that takes $27.5 million off the books, which would push Jed Hoyer's war chest to close to $100 million this winter - more than enough for multiple marquee free-agent signings. The truth is that, with or without that contract, this is a large enough organization that it should be able to go head-to-head with any team for any player, but that's a message that hasn't reached the ears of Jed Hoyer or Tom Ricketts.

This winter's free-agent class isn't particularly strong, and there's a good chance Bellinger could top the $52.5 million he's due over the next two years. I'm not sure if he'll exceed what he's getting in AAV, but that could very well be impacted by how he finishes the year.

On the season, his OPS is down big year-over-year, and the batted ball metrics that dumped cold water on his big-dollar free agent dreams last offseason have only worsened. Without the slug in his game, he's a solid piece in this lineup, sure, but he's not the transformational presence he was early on in his career with the Dodgers. It's hard to imagine him ever being that guy again, but as we saw last summer, he's still capable of changing a lineup for extended stretches.

If he opts into his deal for 2025, Hoyer will be looking at a roster that remains largely unchanged since 2023, with the exceptions of newly-acquired Isaac Paredes and last season's big trade pick-up, Michael Busch. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the front office will need to find ways to inject some real impact talent into a roster that's underperformed - because patience has run out with a fanbase hungry for October baseball.