Looking at this winter's free agent class with Jed Hoyer's latest comments in mind

The Chicago Cubs need a superstar. That's been the case since the mid-2021 fire sale that sent Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez on their way (all moves that look wildly intelligent on the part of Jed Hoyer looking back three years later).

There's nothing wrong with Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki - but this lineup badly needs a consistent middle-of-the-order run producer, someone opposing pitching coaches circle on the lineup card and build a plan to pitch around. The problem is players like that cost hundreds of millions of dollars and that's not an area the Cubs like to play.

In fact, the organization has never signed a single player to a $200+ million contract, and the man calling the shots, Jed Hoyer, is one of the most risk-averse large-market baseball ops guys in the game today. As a reminder, here's what he said in an appearance this week on 670 The Score.

“I would not say that I’m fundamentally opposed to it. I think with any deal like that, there’s a lot of risk. And I think that obviously, at some level, you’re paying – with any of those deals – you’re assuming that when you sign that player in free agency, there’s an awareness that most likely the end of that deal is going to be highly inefficient and that you really have to gain the efficiency early in that deal. So yeah, I think there’s of course a lot of risk in that.

“I’m not fundamentally opposed to it. I do think that I’m probably more risk-averse on those kinds of deals. Those are the deals you sign the … truly elite. I think there’s obviously a lot of risk in them. But fundamentally, are there players in this league that I think are definitely worth it? Absolutely.”

There's one player who is 'definitely worth it' in this winter's crop of talent? Juan Soto. At least to me, given his age (25) and near-flawless track record of elite offensive production (career .956 OPS and 160 OPS+), he's the guy you break all the rules for both in terms of years and total dollars. Putting him in the middle of this Cubs lineup for the next 10+ years would be a complete game-changer and bring one of the faces of baseball to Wrigleyville.

But I am also a realist who understands there are teams who will likely exceed where the Cubs are comfortable (again, we can debate that in and of itself, but we'll save that for another time) - which means we should shift down the list of free agents who could be Cubs' targets this winter.

Most Cubs potential free agent targets come with a ton of long-term risk

Pete Alonso scares the hell out of me. He doesn't strike me as someone who's going to age particularly well given his build and a long-term deal here feels risky. Hopefully, the breakout showing from Michael Busch keeps this from ever being a legitimate consideration on anything other than a shorter-term pact.

Alex Bregman is a name that keeps popping up, but he turns 31 in March and hasn't done himself a lot of favors with his showing in a walk year. If he looks for $200+ million, the Cubs should look elsewhere. I have trouble believing the Cardinals let Paul Goldschmidt walk given their unfailing loyalty to key players well after their decline begins, so cross him off, as well.

It feels increasingly likely the team's 'big' move will be one they themselves have no control over: bringing back Cody Bellinger via his player option for 2025. He hasn't been able to replicate his numbers, particularly the power, from last year and I don't see him getting a max-dollar deal unless he goes on an absolute tear over the next eight weeks.

On the pitching side of things, there are some interesting possibilities - and I think we'll see the Cubs involved on both the starting pitching and relief markets this winter, despite their impressive organizational depth there. But what this team needs is that lineup-changing, built for the big moments star and outside of Soto, I don't see it on the free agent market.