3 Chicago Cubs whose metrics indicate a hot streak is on the horizon

Given that the Chicago Cubs are entrenched in rumors that the team will be sellers at the MLB trade deadline, all attention has gone to that regard in the last couple of weeks. It's easy to get distracted by swirling rumors as trade talks inevitably heat up, but the fact is, sell or not, this team has players that, even though they have underperformed, may finally be set to turn a corner in 2024.

The Cubs will not add any impactful players to the roster at the trade deadline to solely help the 2024 season, but that doesn't mean they can't still turn it around and win ball games if they stay healthy and produce. Thankfully, these three players are overdue to take a big step forward based on their advanced analytics and sabermetrics.

3 Cubs due to breakout - 3. Dansby Swanson

Until recently, Dansby Swanson has had a rather dreadful 2024 season to this part of the year. It can be speculated that he played through injury early on in the season, and it's hindered him both at the plate and defensively. We know Swanson is an elite defender, so his numbers in the field alone scream that something more is going on. Offensively, however, Swanson has recently turned the corner, and his numbers under the hood suggest more resurgence is on the way.

Swanson 2024 :

BA: .217, xBA: .246
BABIP: .279, career: .308
BA since July 10th: .326

Let's focus primarily on the expected batting average and BABIP. An average BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is around .300. When you find yourself with an expected batting average higher than what you're recording yet a BABIP lower than the league average, it can certainly indicate that there's been some bad luck along the way. That doesn't make up for all of it, but given that his outside-the-zone swing percentage is almost identical to last year, you can at least make the case that he should be seeing a bit more success.

As mentioned above, things have already started to turn around, as Swanson is quietly hitting .326 since July 10th. The expected stats are much better than his real numbers, and with the recent outbreak, I'm getting the notion that Swanson is getting back on track offensively. Do not be surprised to see a much more productive second half from him.

1. Porter Hodge

Porter Hodge has taken the Cubs bullpen by storm since his promotion to the big leagues. Passing the naked eye test with flying colors, Hodge has excelled with his fastball and sweeper, as indicated by his 2.29 ERA and 2.79 FIP. With his sweeper, he has already recorded a Run-Value of four and has only thrown the pitch 99 times on the season. That's not all, however, as this run of solid production indicates it's more than just batters that haven't gotten to know him yet:

Hodge 2024:

BABIP: .200
ERA: 2.29, xERA: 2.49

For one, the BABIP of .200 is absurdly low and will rise over time. For reference, Justin Steele is one of the best pitchers on the staff, and his BABIP sits at .265. Shota Imanaga's is at .286. For Hodge, however, Fangraphs thinks that ERA is not far off, indicating that he has been truly dominant. I think Hodge can take the next step, going from great to elite, if he cuts down his walk percentage. He currently owns an excellent strikeout percentage of 28%, coupled with an awful 10.5 BB%.

Allowing free passes will always get you in trouble, and that's where the higher FIP comes from. His .147 batting average against is not something you can assume is a fluke, even if it is a smaller sample. My prediction for Hodge is that although he's already been very efficient, I see him cutting down the walks and becoming unhittable.