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2023 MLB Draft: The Guys That Are Underslot Options at 13 for the Chicago Cubs
We've done a deep dive on a handful of players the Chicago Cubs could draft with the 13th pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, now it's time to look at the under slot options.
Today we’ll be continuing our breakdown of collegiate hitters that will be available in the MLB draft on July 9th. A few weeks ago we looked at two of the SEC’s best that likely won’t be there when the Chicago Cubs pick at number 13, then we looked at four guys that should go somewhere in Chicago’s range, last week we looked at three guys that should definitely be there and now we’re going to look at some under slot options.
Other writers may choose to write about high school bats or pitchers in either the college or high school ranks, but as I posited earlier this week, the safest and highest upside play in the first round over the last 20 years has been to draft the college hitter so that’s what I’m going to hone in on.
For now, here are four players that the Cubs could draft and save some money to spend on high-end players later in the draft.
Jacob Wilson SS Grand Canyon
Athletic: #20
Fangraphs: #10
MLB.com: #10
Wow. The stats are pretty impressive and the size is ideal for a player at the major league level. As a freshman, Wilson hit .313/.376/.440 with just 19 strikeouts. Those 19 strikeouts are nearly four times as many strikeouts as he had this season. In 2023 Wilson hit .411/.461/.635 with 19 walks and just 5 strikeouts.
There are players that will be drafted this weekend that have had five strikeouts in a game and he went 217 plate appearances this season with just five. Last year he went 275 plate appearances with seven. He has elite bat-to-ball skills, and again the size is ideal for a shortstop, but he has played against… less than stellar competition at Grand Canyon University.
Keith Law compared him to a player Cubs fans know pretty well:
He doesn’t drive the ball at all or hit it hard, and his launch angle is barely over zero degrees, giving him one of the lowest of any college hitter who might go in the top-50 picks. He’s a fringe-average runner, as well. That’s a long way of saying that it’s a tough profile, albeit one we’ve seen go in the first round – Nick Madrigal and Kevin Newman are two recent examples. He is someone who projects to play in the big leagues with very, very high probability, but who may not have the ceiling of a regular.
Fangraphs believes in the bat even if it’s never going to do much for power:
He can poke pitches on the outer edge to the opposite field, but does most of his extra-base damage to his pull side. He may only ever have a one-note offensive profile but it's the most important note, a very loud note, and that's usually enough to play shortstop, where Wilson has become very good over the last year.
Finally, MLB.com likes the pedigree that he has as a second-generation (potential) professional ball player and the characteristics that come with it including his baseball IQ. They’re the only outlet that mentions him coming off of shortstop for third base but they think his bat could carry that position, although I’m less certain of that.
Nolan Schanuel 1B Florida Atlantic
Athletic: #21
Fangraphs: #30
MLB.com: #26
Another wow. This year Schanuel batted .444/.612/.864 with 19 homers and the most staggering walks (71) to strikeout (14) ratio that I’ve ever seen. Let’s get all of the bad out of the way early: He’s a first baseman. He played against mediocre competition at Florida Atlantic. The walk numbers are almost twice as many as he had last season and nearly three times as many as he had as a freshman.
But a .612 OBP? That’s Bonds-like. I don’t care what position you play or who you were playing against, to be able to be selective enough to get on base to that extent but not so selective that you give up power output or find yourself striking out more frequently is profoundly impressive. He had more at-bats this season than ever before but struck out less than he ever has before. He hit more homers, more triples, more doubles, and more singles than he’s ever had before and he stole 14 of the 15 bases he attempted to steal. The dude is a monster.
MLB.com believes in the bat, but more than that they believe in his positional flexibility on defense as well:
An average runner, Schanuel played first base almost exclusively for FAU over his first two seasons out of need. Some scouts think he’s athletic enough to handle an outfield corner, where he saw some time in the spring. That could raise his profile some, though it’s his advanced bat that could allow him to surpass C.J. Chatham (No. 51 overall pick in 2016) as the highest-drafted player in FAU history.
Keith Law is less in love with his profile:
Schanuel’s stat line might be the only one to rival Crews’, with a hilarious .447/.615/.868 line and 71 walks against just 14 strikeouts. He’s done so in Conference USA, not the SEC, so he hasn’t faced the same caliber of arms, and he’s limited to first base, which seriously dents his draft stock, as does a mediocre performance hitting on the Cape last summer.
Finally, Fangraphs compared him to a player that I have the Cubs trading for in my most recent trade piece for Cubbies Crib that you can find here:
He is similar to Washington State alum Kyle Manzardo, a hit-tool driven first base prospect who is likely to hit enough to play a big league role, and maybe even make so much contact to buck trends and be a regular without huge power.
Chase Davis OF Arizona
Athletic: #30
Fangraphs: #16
MLB.com: #22
Chase Davis is a pretty cool glow-up story. In his freshman year, he hit .233/.343/.400 across 27 games as mostly a pinch-hitter. In his sophomore season, he was more impressive, hitting 18 homers in 62 games with a .289/.414/.583 slash line. That being said, there was still something to be desired as he struck out 66 times and walked 48.
This season, Davis hit .362/.489/.742 with an increase in singles, doubles, triples and homers across the board while getting the strikeouts (40) under control and keeping the walks (43) in an impressive place.
He’s a left-handed hitting corner outfielder which is only slightly more valuable than someone with a first base profile, but it is at least slightly more valuable. Fangraphs threw out an interesting player comparison:
Carlos Gonzalez comps get thrown around because of Davis' swing, which is one of the sweeter-looking cuts in the draft. He has a bat wrap, but his path is so tight to his body as it fires that it isn't overly long. He's a discerning hitter with plus bat speed and a swing geared for loft, and he has the power to hit balls out to all fields.
Keith Law believes in the defensive profile more than most as he believes he can stick in center field (at least for now):
His game power is at least a 60, and he’s a 55 runner who plays center now and should at least begin his pro career out there, with the downside of an above-average defender in right if he can’t stay up the middle. I think he’s at least a regular and has more upside than some of the safer college bats who’ll go before him.
MLB.com also thinks that there’s at least a chance he could play center due to his speed and instincts, even if that hasn’t manifested in the form of stolen bases:
A physical specimen, Davis has average speed to a tick above. He played left field for all of the 2022 season but played center on the Cape. Any team considering Davis in the top couple of rounds might want to send him out at center to see how he plays at the next level, knowing the power profile could fit back in an outfield corner.
Yohandy Morales 3B Miami
Athletic: #32
Fangraphs: #13
MLB.com: #32
Thomas is another of these guys with a batting average over .400. He has shown consistent improvement every season across the board. He hit .284/.343/.531 as a freshman with 11 homers. As a sophomore, he improved to .328/.409/.647 with 18 homers. Finally this year he hit .408/.475/.713 with 20 homers.
He has a strikeout issue that he hasn’t done much to alleviate and he doesn’t offer a ton in terms of baserunning, but he’s got a middle-of-the-lineup bat that has played against some of the best competition in the country playing in the ACC.
Fangraphs is definitely the highest outlet I’ve seen on Morales and they love his ability to stay at third base even if his swing leaves him vulnerable on the offensive side:
Even as he's filled out to about 225 pounds, he's retained the athleticism to play third base quite well, and his arm is an easy left-side fit on the infield. It's possible the move Morales' hands make before he actually starts his swing can be toned down to help him shorten up and pull more pitches without detracting from his power. He has the ceiling of an impact everyday third baseman.
Some guys just look better than everyone else. You see them step on the field and you know they’re going to be superstars. I remember seeing Yordan Alvarez in-person at a game in AA and knowing he was a dude before seeing him swing. Keith Law says that Morales has that look, but doesn’t necessarily believe in his ability to reach that potential:
Morales looks the part, certainly, and has a pretty swing that can produce significant power but more often puts the ball on the ground. You can beat him with velocity up or breaking stuff down and away, not dissimilar to former Florida Gator Jud Fabian, who was the Orioles’ second-round pick last year.
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