5 Trades that Would Make the Chicago Cubs Competitors in 2024

Trade 1: The Chicago Cubs trade C Yan Gomes to the Cleveland Guardians for RHP James Karinchak and LHP Randy Labaut

I understand this isn’t the catcher that Cubs fans would like to see traded, however, the nature of a trade is that the receiving team has to get a player they actually think is valuable, and unfortunately not many people can look at Tucker Barnhart’s production at the plate and say that he has been anything close to valuable.

That being said, the Cleveland Guardians have gotten a -0.6 WAR from the catcher position, and even with the call-up of prized prospect Bo Naylor, a playoff team needs to have a veteran backstop to give them a chance to make a run. Even when the Cubs made their run in 2016 with Willson Contreras they had Miguel Montero and David Ross on the roster for much of the season to work with the pitching staff. 

The Guardians have young starting pitching and in a video game it may be fun to pair that with a young catcher so they can learn the game together, it simply doesn’t work like that in the real world when you find yourself in a division that’s up for the taking. If the Guardians were 10 games back, it may make sense to let Naylor learn on the fly, but with Gomes, they have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

What the Cubs would be looking for in return would be cost-controlled bullpen pieces and they’d get that in the form of castoff James Karinchak and former 35th-round pick Randy Labaut. With Karinchak, the wildness finally resulted in a move that many outside of the Guardians organization found perplexing which was a demotion to AAA. Since arriving in Columbus he’s been exceptional, working to a 2.57 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 7 innings. Labaut has been impressive as well with a 2.13 ERA at AAA although he hasn’t missed many bats with just three strikeouts over 12.2 innings. 

If the Cubs aren’t willing to pay for relievers in free agency this is a good way to get it without mortgaging the future and moving top pitching prospects to the pen. 

Trade 2: The Chicago Cubs trade LHP Drew Smyly to the Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Hagen Danner, LHP Jimmy Burnette, and INF Riley Tirotta

This trade was so good that I decided to leave it completely alone and change nothing. Still extremely believable even after nearly two months. 

The 33-year-old Smyly is under contract through 2024 and has a mutual option for 2025 making him a valuable piece to a team in contention. He’s enjoying his best season in about a decade and if not for Yan Gomes spear-tackling him in the 8th inning, he may have thrown the 24th Perfect Game in major league history earlier this year. 

That being said, while he could be a valuable piece for the Cubs moving forward as well, he is likely more valuable to them in terms of what they can get in return. The Cubs have Jameson Taillon, and Justin Steele under team control through 2026 and 2027 respectively, along with Kyle Hendricks through 2024 and players like Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks that could join the rotation as early as later this season. They also hope to be bidders in the Julio Urías/Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes this winter and therefore a player like Drew Smyly becomes a little superfluous.

For the return the Cubs would be looking to improve a bullpen that has been, in a word, terrible. 

Insert Hagen Danner and Jimmy Burnette. Both are 24 in AA right now, both have over 15 K/9, and both have incredible mustaches. Danner is an RHP that ranks as the 22nd-best prospect in the Blue Jays system while Burnette is not currently ranked in the top 30 according to MLB pipeline. The Cubs' biggest problem with the bullpen this season has been an inability to miss bats, and these two solve that problem.

The last piece doesn’t bring a ton to the table as a 24-year-old in High A but he’s currently carrying a slash line of .317/.424/.573 with three homers and five stolen bases. He’s never played a level of minor league baseball where he was younger than the average player for that level and yet has also never had an OPS over .775, so there’s not a ton going on here, but a player with defensive positional flexibility in the infield has benefits.

Trade 3: The Chicago Cubs trade OF/1B Cody Bellinger to the Houston Astros for RHP Forrest Whitley and OF Justin Dirden

It was fun thinking about ways the Cubs could be buyers and maybe try to hold on to Cody Bellinger going into next season but it appears that ship has sailed. 

The Astros are not good at first base. They have a -0.4 WAR and Bellinger can be better than that even if he’s not hitting as he’s currently sitting at a 1.5 in 200 at-bats this season. This may not be as strong of a Houston Astros team as we are accustomed to seeing but if they think they can knock the Rangers out of first place or even if they just want to make a run at a wild card, Bellinger is the kind of impact bat that should be able to help with that. 

The Cubs would be getting two very interesting pieces in return for this deal. The first is Forrest Whitley. When I think about great potential in pitchers I often find myself thinking of three players the Astros failed miserably: Mark Appel, Brady Aiken, and Forrest Whitley. It may be unfair to include Aiken in that list considering they chose not to sign him due to problems with his physical, but the fact of the matter is that the Astros simply haven’t been able to turn those arms with tremendous potential into actual impact starters. 

The times have changed because I actually believe in the Cubs’ ability to develop pitching now and I’d love to get a chance to see if Whitley has anything left in the tank, even if he is currently sporting a 5.70 ERA this season after having a 6.53 ERA across three levels last season. 

In order to ensure that we aren’t getting a bag of beans in this deal, the other piece would be Justin Dirden. He’s followed up last season’s exceptional slash line of .302/.384/.558 with a slash of .276/.345/.489 at AAA with nine homers and four stolen bases. His game reminds me a little bit of Ian Happ and he’s the kind of player that could easily find his way onto the opening day roster to start next season. 

Trade 4: The Chicago Cubs send 1B/OF Trey Mancini and RHP Michael Fulmer to the New York Yankees for RHP Chase Hampton and 3B Andres Chaparro

Trey Mancini was a player I was legitimately excited to have joined the Cubs in the offseason but it hasn’t worked out quite the way any of us would have hoped. At one point earlier this season I argued a reason for this trade would be to get Matt Mervis some more plate appearances. That one didn’t age super well as Mervis is back in AAA, but if the season is toast and we want to compete next year it may be worth letting him come back to the majors and get the struggles out in a lost season so that he can be a contributor next year.

Aside from that, Mancini has been horrific at first base and he would likely be playing a corner outfield position for the Yankees where they currently have just a 0.3 WAR as a team in left field and the former MVP Aaron Judge in right. 

The return on this one wouldn’t be staggering. The Cubs would receive the Yankees' number 24 prospect that MLB Pipeline said this about:

Hampton's fastball usually works at 91-95 mph with high spin rates, good carry and some arm-side run. He has nice feel for spinning the ball, throwing his tight low-80s slider for more strikes than his upper-70s curveball, which has more depth and elicits more swings-and-misses. He complements those three solid pitches with a fading changeup that's too firm in the mid-80s. 

The other piece in the deal would offer the Cubs a little bit of depth at third base. Andres Chaparro played at three levels last year and went .296/.370/.592 with 20 homers. This season he’s followed it up by hitting .240/.324/.458 with 15 homers already. He may not be available in a deal like this but if he is he’d be a nice piece that could contribute early and often next season. 

Trade 5: The Chicago Cubs trade RHP Marcus Stroman to the Tampa Bay Rays for 1B Kyle Manzardo, LHP Ian Seymour, and OF Heriberto Hernandez

Crazy how we save this trade for last, but this is a deal the Cubs have to make. It doesn’t have to be for these players, and it doesn’t have to be to the Rays, but Marcus Stroman simply cannot be on this roster after the trade deadline if the Cubs fall out of contention.

Should the Cubs extend him? Maybe. Probably. But will they? Absolutely not, and if you don’t recognize that after hearing the way Hoyer has been talking then there’s a bigger problem. At the point in which the Cubs won’t extend him in season and they can’t give him a qualifying offer in the off-season then they run the risk of him walking for absolutely nothing. 

I didn’t want to lose Javy Baez. I didn’t want to lose Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo or anyone else on that championship team, but in return, I now see Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara, and Owen Caissie in the system and it makes it easier to stomach. The Cubs kept Willson Contreras last year and in return… received nothing. That hurts much worse.

So with all of that said, let’s get into the return: First base is an area where the Cubs are in a tough spot. Jared Young is a cool story, Matt Mervis has some interesting power but can’t hit lefties and Haydn McGeary has been awesome against AA competition but we can’t bet on that. Kyle Manzardo is having a down year this year batting .239/.345/.444 but last season he hit .327/.426/.617 across two levels. 

Ian Seymour is an upside play in a similar way to Whitley in the Astros deal. This is what MLB.com had to say about him:

Seymour was seemingly on the fast track to the big leagues entering last season. Undrafted out of high school, three strong seasons at Virginia Tech and a strong Cape Cod League performance turned him into a second-round pick in the 2020 Draft. Flexor soreness delayed his pro debut until July 2021, but he moved quickly and effectively after that. In 14 outings from Single-A to Triple-A, the lefty posted a 1.95 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings and even caught the big league staff’s attention. But his ascent was delayed in 2022, when he began the season in Double-A, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in early June.

He threw one inning on the 4th of July and faced three guys, striking out all three. If he’s back, that’d be a heck of a guy to add to a deep pitching system.

Finally, Heriberto Hernandez is a guy I’ve liked since he signed with the Rangers years ago. He’s not a guy that’s going to hit for a great average but he has some solid pop and even though he’s not as interesting as he was in his days with the Rangers (when he was hitting dingers as a catcher) he’s still a great third piece in a deal like this. MLB.com had this to say:

Following a solid organizational debut in 2021, Hernandez was named the team MVP for High-A Bowling Green last year after hitting .255/.368/.499 with 24 homers and 89 RBIs.

Don't get me wrong. This would be a massive bummer to see play out, and I don't think Jed Hoyer wants this to happen because he may be the next one out the door if it does. That being said, by shipping these players out there are a myriad of benefits that we could see to help the team compete next season:

1. Bullpen Help

In these deals, the Cubs would be receiving four legitimate bullpen pieces that could be interesting and another with high-leverage stuff in the form of Forrest Whitley if the Cubs chose to go that direction like the Marlins did with AJ Puk this season.

2. Starting Pitching Depth

The Cubs already have Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks in AAA but adding guys like Chase Hampton and Ian Seymour gives them the ability to weather the storm of injuries that almost always come.

3. None of these guys are long-term

I'd love to think the Cubs were going to re-sign Bellinger and Stroman, but as a fan, I've come to realize that's not the Cubs MO. These guys are going to walk anyway, and getting players that can be contributors long-term would be fantastic.

4. Develop at the major league level

These trades allow the Cubs to operate with less on the line. They can call Jeremiah Estrada back up and put him in high-leverage spots. They can see if Daniel Palencia is a legitimate bullpen piece or if we should stretch him back out. They can give Jared Young and Matt Mervis some run at first base. They can let Christopher Morel try to learn third base at the major league level.

Again, I wouldn't celebrate if these deals were made. A lost season is profoundly frustrating when a team in this large of a market can't field a competitor, but that ship has sailed and these deals make it less likely to happen again next year.

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