Pete Crow-Armstrong is somehow exceeding this wild preseason projection

Last offseason, I wrote about my lofty expectations for Pete Crow-Armstrong, wondering if he was a lock to be the Cubs most valuable player in 2025. It was an aggressive suggestion when I made it, seeing that PCA finished 2024 with a .670 OPS. When the Chicago Cubs signed Kyle Tucker several weeks later, the concept became even more unfathomable. But then Crorw-Armstrong decided to turn into Bobby Witt Jr.

I mapped out a path for Crow-Armstrong to get to the 5.0 WAR mark, which is generally indicative of an All-Star level player. PCA is already two-thirds of the way there, having already accrued 3.1 WAR. It's not even the end of May. The California native has ridden this hot streak to begin the season into rarefied air- he ranks second in MLB for sabetricians' favorite stat, wedged between Aaron Judge (who is essentially Jon Dowd right now) and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting up Aaron Judge-like numbers

The Cubs' dynamo is on pace for an absurd 10.7 WAR campaign, with projected totals of 41 homers, 41 doubles, 53 steals and over 4.0 dWAR. If he can carry his success forward, Crow-Armstrong has transcended from emerging star status to MVP front-runner. Is it realistic to think he continues to rack up these incredible stats?

The short answer is probably not: 10.7 WAR is the land of Aaron Judge and Ty Cobb. Crow-Armstrong still has a lot of holes in his game and is producing absurd numbers for someone that swings at as many pitches as he does. That's not necessarily a deal-breaker, but it does portend that there will be cold stretches upcoming that will limit his ability to accrue WAR at all-world pace like 2024 Judge. However, his floor for the full season is already incredibly high. Defensively, he's a sure thing. Advanced metrics adore the way PCA defends and essentially make him an All-Star simply by that angle alone. This being said, he doesn't NEED to continue slugging at the same rate to earn MVP votes at seasons end.

The Cubs have 116 games left or nearly 72 percent of their regular season slate. If their center fielder hit just .245 the rest of the way with 18 homers in those 116 games, ChatGPT projects that this would have him wrap the season at 8.9 WAR. If you consider .245 with 18 bombs and great defense and baserunning a safe bet for the rest of the season for a healthy Crow-Armstrong, the exciting budding superstar is already a lock to be in the MVP conversation at the end of the season. The Cubs have officially got themselves a bonafide star.