Is Pete Crow-Armstrong a lock to be the Cubs' most valuable player in 2025?

It appears the Chicago Cubs will likely enter 2025 with an identical (or close to it) lineup to the one they wrapped 2024 with. This is attracting both ire from Cubs fans and questions from the media on how good the roster really can be. This quote sums it up:

"The problem is this (the Cubs lineup) is a collection of either average or pretty good players with no stars. Some of them -- Bellinger, Suzuki, Happ -- are capable of playing like stars at times, but not at a superstar level for a full season. "

Matt Snyder, CBS Sports

Knowing that the same lineup will most likely return in 2025, Pete Crow-Armstrong has a legitimate chance at being the Cubs' most valuable position player by WAR simply because of the incredible floor his defense provides.

Is it insane to say that he was even better than expected on defense in his first (somewhat) full season? Here's some fun stats from Baseball Savant:

• Fielding Run Value: 99th Percentile/2nd In the league
• Range: 98th Percentile
• Arm Value: 98th Percentile
• Arm Strength: 96th Percentile
• Baseball Reference Fielding WAR: 1.6 (7th in MLB despite only playing 965 innings)

Despite a dismal .203/.253/.329 showing before the All-Star break, PCA still managed to finish with 2.3 WAR on the back of his defense, league-leading base running skills and a significantly improved second-half effort at the dish. Dansby Swanson led the Cubs roster with 4.0 WAR in very similar fashion to Crow-Armstrong - via defense and a strong finish to the season.

It's dangerously easy to chart a path to a 5.0 WAR season (which would project to be a team-high) for the Cubs' fiery center fielder in 2025. On defense in 2024, he played 30 percent fewer innings than Ian Happ. Since WAR is an accumulative stat, you can linearly project around 2.2 WAR over a 1300-inning season simply from defense.

I actually believe there's room for him to improve his defense - he spent a good chunk of the second half getting used to playing alongside two other Gold Glove outfielders in Happ and Cody Bellinger. It almost seemed to take away just a bit of his aggressiveness on certain balls in the gap after a couple of mishaps with Happ. It's not a stretch to think he could approach or surpass Daulton Varsho's 2024 league-leading 3.1 dWAR with a full season of innings in 2025.

There's still a TON of work to do with the bat. While the second half was certainly better, most of the surge was consolidated to an insanely hot August where he cut down his strikeout rate while simultaneously drastically improving his slug. Overall, Crow-Armstrong still chases at pitches out of the zone more than nearly anyone in the bigs, needs to increase his walk percentage to make full value of his incredible legs, and just generally make more contact.

That being said, he only had 410 plate appearances while everyday players will normally approach the 640 range. The second-year jump at the dish is very real for players, particularly ones as young as Crow-Armstrong. Elly De La Cruz, another toolsy young speedster and top prospect (albeit with more natural power and maybe a slightly better hit tool) had a similar stat line in 2023 to Crow-Armstrong's 2024 season over a similar number of plate appearances.

De La Cruz made a huge leap in 2024 to a 5.4 WAR season despite being a net negative on defense and leading the Senior Circuit in strikeouts. The key? Hard contact (71 extra-base hits) and increased on-base skills which allowed him to make full use of his speed. Realistically, Crow-Armstrong could provide every bit as much value with his legs as De La Cruz, as the two are virtually identical in most advanced running metrics.

While the Chicago center fielder doesn't project for that type of slug, his defensive value will be so much greater than De La Cruz that he doesn't have to slug nearly as much to get to that 5-WAR benchmark we are using. Another interesting potential comparison is Kevin Kiermaier, who rode what Baseball Reference considers one of the best defensive campaigns ever in 2015 en route to a 7.1 WAR campaign in his second season despite only posting a 99 OPS+. Incredible defensive seaons can power eye-popping WAR numbers.

Other potential tailwinds could help power Crow-Armstrong's ascension. If Bellinger is traded and Nico Hoerner starts the season on the shelf for any extended time, that would neutralize two main competitors for the crown. While I find it unlikely that the bat will find enough consistency to dethrone Happ or Swanson, PCA is definitely is among the main competitors for the crown.