One of the final 2026 mock drafts have the Cubs doubling down on proven strategy

After a season full of mock drafts, it's about that time yet again. The MLB Draft takes place this weekend, starting July 11, and for the Chicago Cubs, everyone is watching especially closely to see who they pick in the first round. There's been a real divide this year over whether Jed Hoyer's front office will stay the course and continue drafting the college bats they've so reliably hit on since Matt Shaw was selected, or if they'll finally address the organization's dire need for arms in the first round.

Finding the most value is important, but the Cubs have skewed too far on the position player side with their highest-ceiling prospects. Their current top ten farmhands by MLB Pipeline's rankings feature just two pitchers, one being Jaxon Wiggins, who's been plagued by injuries this year, and the other being Kaleb Wing, who shows a lot of promise with a 2.76 ERA at Single-A Myrtle Beach, but has serious command issues. While the hitting side has seen a few massive breakouts like Josiah Hartshorn and Pedro Ramirez, no arms have enjoyed as meteoric a rise. That especially stands out in a year where the big-league Cubs are injured beyond belief and are poised to lose all of Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon to free agency next year.

Nonetheless, FanGraphs projects the Cubs to continue leaning into their strengths under VP of Scouting Dan Kantrovitz. In his first mock draft before the big day, Eric Longenhagen has the team going with Texas Longhorns outfielder Aiden Robbins at No. 23. The big point in his favor is that Robbins, like Shaw, Cam Smith, and Ethan Conrad, was a standout in the Cape Cod League over the summer, posting a .936 OPS with plenty of playing time. His numbers at Texas were also strong this year, sitting at .333/.426/.696, though the strikeout rate is a tad high for a college draftee at 22.9%.

Robbins is in that range of players that will be easily attainable for the Cubs in the draft, ranked at No. 29 overall by MLB. He'd certainly add some extra slug to a farm system that could still use a little more, too. Nicknamed "Baseball Jesus," his breakthrough moment came during his time with Seton Hall in 2025, when he strung together one of the best single-season performances in the institution's history by slashing .422/.537/.652 with a batting title to boot. Looking at his time in Texas, there are other things to love too, like his 24 home runs, which are tied for third-most in the school's history, or his penchant for destroying fastballs. In 2026, he crushed heaters to the tune of a .454 average and .928 slugging percentage.

Aiden Robbins is promising, but not what the Cubs need most

At this point, it's hard to blame the Cubs for going with a route they're most confident can give them a quality prospect. Shaw and Smith both shot through the minors in no time, and expectations are similarly high for Conrad now that he's healthy and promoted to Myrtle Beach. They've earned plenty of grace, whether they select Robbins or other names they've been connected to, like Zion Rose, AJ Gracia, or Logan Hughes.

It'll be hard not to be a little disappointed if the name called isn't a starting pitcher at No. 23, though. Going back to the Theo Epstein era, developing arms has been a challenge for this organization, and the best chance of finding that next homegrown ace lies in drafting a big name in the first round. Kantrovitz made a note of it himself recently, reinforcing the focus on pitching while not necessarily becoming too tunnel-visioned on landing an arm for the sake of it.

Plenty of experts have also heard that they're keeping a close eye on college pitchers this year, too. Perhaps the highest-ceiling option would be if the fireballing Cameron Flukey (#15) falls to them, as his stuff has drawn comparisons to Tyler Glasnow. Otherwise, there's a healthy mix of arms that could be available by the time their pick comes, from Ole Miss's Cade Townsend, whom FanSided mocked to the Cubs, to Mason Edwards or Logan Reddemann, whom multiple outlets have mentioned as fits for Chicago. We'll only know for certain which direction they'll go once the pick is finally in.

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