Key Cubs prospect could determine everything about Jed Hoyer's deadline

Last month, in the midst of an ugly skid, Jed Hoyer said that the Chicago Cubs wouldn't be prolific buyers leading up to the trade deadline unless their play improved. A frustrating sentiment, but one that held merit given how the season looked as though it had derailed for the North Siders.

From that point forward, though, the Cubs closed out June on a high note, winning or splitting each of their final six series during the month. Thus, they're now barreling toward the All-Star Break with a ton of momentum, sitting atop the National League Wild Card standings with a little more than a week to go in the first half.

That's the kind of performance Hoyer was begging for, which hopefully means that he'll get a little more aggressive in trade talks over the next few weeks. But to do so, he'll have to remove the "untouchable" label from a few of the organization's top prospects.

Hence, we're now looking at a franchise-defining decision regarding Jaxon Wiggins, whose future in Chicago will be known by this time next month.

Cubs must determine whether Jaxon Wiggins is more valuable as a prospect or trade chip

Wiggins missed most of April and all of May with an elbow injury, which obviously requires extreme caution when you're talking about a young pitching prospect. He returned to action in a Complex League start in mid-June and has since made a few outings in South Bend, though his expected arrival back in Triple-A Iowa has been pushed back by a few weeks.

It doesn't sound as though that's cause for concern, but Patrick Mooney of The Athletic did note that it obviously rules Wiggins out of consideration in case the big-league club is pressed for depth again. However, the Cubs pundit did suggest that Wiggins "could become a factor in the second half," either as a contributor or trade bait.

There's a lot to unpack there, but it's clear that Wiggins' health is the key to all of this. He'll return to Iowa at some point soon, and if he doesn't look right, that'll hurt his stock both internally and externally.

However, if his elbow doesn't further impede his progress -- and the right-hander resembles the star pitcher who climbed from High-A to Triple-A last year while compiling a 2.19 ERA and 2.94 FIP -- then all bets are off. He's by far the best pitching prospect in the farm system, which could make him too valuable to move.

Then again, the Cubs are already dealing with the headaches of another not-so-durable young pitcher in Cade Horton, and Wiggins' history may be even more spotty (he's never tossed more than 78 innings in any pro season). If Hoyer can pry an established arm loose from another team, would it make sense to part with a talented but ultimately unproven prospect like Wiggins?

This is the dilemma facing the front office this summer. We know they wouldn't part with Wiggins last year, but has his elbow injury shifted the equation enough to change their minds?

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