One Matt Shaw comparison that may shock Chicago Cubs fans

I think most Cubs fans are in the same boat when it comes to the third base situation with the Cubs- a combination of being disappointed that Alex Bregman won't be wearing blue pinstripes, being relieved that the Bregman saga is over, and excited to see what Matt Shaw can do as the full-time third baseman. Unfortunately for Shaw, it almost feels like he is the flex point between the Cubs having an elite-level lineup on paper or simply a good one.

So what's a realistic expectation for a full season of Shaw at the hot corner? I think, generally, you can expect the same thing from most highly touted rookies- flashes of brilliance, occasional sustained stretches of good play, and probably some recurring, elongated periods of struggle. But can we project further than that?

If Shaw indeed begins the season as the starter, he'll be in pretty rarified air. The former Maryland Terrapin had only 600 at-bats in the minors, just 151 at Triple-A, and is only 23. That being said, the youngster played three full seasons in college (where he raked) and played in the elite Cape Cod summer league (where he raked) on top of those minor league at-bats (where, not surprisingly, he raked).

Shaw has a varied skill set- very strong contact skills with good power, speed, and above-average hands at third (his arm is the only real concern as he continues his transition to the position). Shaw also has excellent walk rates, which I love to see as a kind of core skill for guys to bring to the Majors already established.

So what current player is a strong comp? This seems like an oversimplification because of the timing and I despise the fact that it's this specific guy at this point in time... but Alex Bregman has a lot of similarities. Hear me out...

They both played three years in college at good programs, where they predominately played shortstop with similar slender frames.
Bregman entered his rookie year ranked #22 in the MLB.com prospect rankings; Shaw is currently ranked 19th.
Bregman had 589 minor league at-bats before his debut; Shaw will premiere with the aforementioned 600.
Bregman .297/.388/.498 in his short minor league sting; Shaw slashed .303/.384/.522 in his.
The two third basemen also have remarkably souting grades:

Matt Shaw may make Chicago Cubs fans forget about Alex Bregman

Bregman is a perennial All-Star with 40 career WAR. But the parallels are strong and highlight Shaw's incredible upside potential. Bregman debuted halfway through the 2016 season but slashed .284/.352/.475 in his first full season in 2017 with 19 homers, 17 stolen bases, 39 doubles, and 4.0 WAR. That seems like a realistic best-case scenario for Shaw—it would be a Rookie of the Year-type stat line, but Shaw is certainly capable of winning that award.

What might represent a slightly less bullish scenario? Let's take a look at Josh Jung's recent rookie campaign. Jung's skills profiled extremely similarly to Shaw's —strong command of the strike zone and contact ability with above-average power, with identical 60-grade hit and 55-grade power grades.

The Texas Tech product sat 29th in the MLB.com prospect ranking and debuted after 629 minor league at-bats. Pretty similar numbers to Shaw's 19th ranking and 600 at-bats! Jung only was able to play 122 games before struggling with injuries in his first full season in 2023. He slashed .266/.315/.467 with 23 homers and 2.4 WAR. Jung also profiles as a similar defensive third baseman to Shaw- his Statcast data for 2023 has him in just the 42nd percentile for arm strength but 92nd in range. Shaw has received some pretty positive reviews for his glove work at a relatively new position. This would be a less bullish outcome for Shaw's rookie year but one that Cubs fans would take gladly.

Obviously, there are other outcomes here, but these two scenarios highlight how much of an impact Shaw could have on this 2025 Cubs team. While any Cubs fans claiming they "didn't really want Bregman" is lying to you, a rookie season output from Shaw between 2.4 and 4.0 WAR would put the youngster in striking distance of the value that Bregman has provided for the last 4-5 seasons for approximately $40 million cheaper.

Matt Shaw may make Chicago Cubs fans forget about Alex Bregman

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