New MLB Pipeline prospect rankings show the Cubs have major work to do

For the past year or so, it's been apparent that the Chicago Cubs farm system is approaching a bit of a cliff. The fruits of the big 2021 sell-off, other trades, and recent drafts have mostly been harvested in one way or another. Owen Caissie was finally used to nab a high-upside starter in Edward Cabrera, while Matt Shaw and Cade Horton were the latest to graduate into useful major league players. All of that is exactly what teams hope for with their top prospects, but the Cubs are still missing one crucial thing — sustainability.

One thing Jed Hoyer wanted to focus on as president was creating a more consistent churn of minor league talent, particularly pitchers, to prevent the big league Cubs from running off a cliff. The undoing of the 2016 core had a lot to do with their failure to develop quality starting pitching prospects beyond Kyle Hendricks, whom they acquired from the Rangers. So far, though, similar patterns are emerging within the current organization, and they're reflected in prospect rankings.

MLB Pipeline recently unveiled its updated ranking of baseball's top 100 prospects for 2026, and it includes only two Cubs players. Worse, those two prospects are catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros and pitcher Jaxon Wiggins, one who is almost certain to graduate this year and the other who should graduate off the list within the next couple. As a silver lining, both are given high praise at 55 and 58 on the list, respectively, with Wiggins now being recognized as the ninth-best right-handed pitching prospect, just behind Travis Sykora and Jonah Tong.

There's a lot to love about both guys. Ballesteros mashed at every level of the minors and, in his short time in Chicago last year, slashed .298/.394/.474 with a 143 wRC+ across 66 plate appearances. Wiggins, meanwhile, has exciting upside with a 70-grade fastball that rates out similarly to name prospects like Tong, Bubba Chandler, and Andrew Painter. He's also continued to make strides in the minors despite sporting a less-than-stellar 4.15 walks per nine across all levels last year, posting a collective 2.19 ERA.

Yet, it does not bode well that Pipeline currently sees nothing worth putting in the top 100 after them. It not only reflects a lack of confidence right now in some of their more recent draftees, but also a dearth of breakouts on the farm and a souring in the perception of guys like Jefferson Rojas and Kevin Alcantara, who were once fixtures on the list. This lack of luster on the Cubs' farm is far from just an MLB Pipeline perception, too. Keith Law at The Athletic only has three top-100 names in the system, swapping out Wiggins for Alcantara and Rojas, while both Baseball America and ESPN have the same view as Pipeline.

There are reasons for optimism in the Cubs' prospect woes

Now, there are a few caveats to be had here. For one, the Cubs have two prime breakout candidates in Ethan Conrad and Kane Kepley. Conrad was their first-round pick last year, yet hasn't played a professional game due to injury, while the second-round draftee Kepley exploded in A-ball immediately with a .299/.481/.433/180 wRC+ offensive line. Both are bound to get better looks and more love as they get more playing time.

At least at the positional side, there's also time rebuild the farm thanks to all the recent and soon-to-be graduated players. The Cubs got a solid amount of long-term value out of their previous crop, between Ballesteros, Shaw, Horton, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Miguel Amaya, who won't be free agents for the foreseeable future. Dansby Swanson and the newly-signed Alex Bregman, meanwhile, are locked in at shortstop and third base for a while, too.

The work that needs to be done as soon as possible is with pitching. After Wiggins, their next best arm on the farm is Brandon Birdsell, who's coming off a lost year of development after having elbow surgery. They could certainly use a bounce back from him, but some strides from 2025 draftees Kaleb Wing and Dominick Reid would especially help boost the perception of the system. Newly promoted Vice President of Pitching, Tyler Zombro, might be key to revitalizing their process towards drafting and developing going forward, and it may take a moment before his full impact is felt.