Owen Caissie has been the Chicago Cubs' top prospect for most of 2025, sliding into the top spot in the farm system following the graduations of Matt Shaw and Cade Horton.
With Caissie set to take on a more meaningful role in the big leagues in 2026 — either as an outfielder or designated hitter — that No. 1 prospect throne may open up in short order.
There's no shortage of candidates, either. Starting pitcher Jaxson Wiggins is coming off a brilliant season and reached Triple-A Iowa in 2025. Jefferson Rojas, a 20-year-old infielder, smashed High-A pitching this year. And second-round pick Kane Kepley lit the minors on fire after debuting in the Cubs' system.
However, MLB Pipeline foresees a sterling season for first-round pick Ethan Conrad, suggesting he'll make the leap and become the Cubs' top prospect in 2026.
Ethan Conrad looks ideal in the Chicago Cubs model and they nab him at 17.
— Greg Zumach (@IvyFutures) July 13, 2025
Conrad slashed .385/.433/.486 on the Cape, which is a key indicator for the Cubs org. He was off to a blistering start before injuring his shoulder. Cubs taking him this high suggests they trust medicals. pic.twitter.com/1AKFoZH7k4
Ethan Conrad has the tools to become Cubs' top prospect in 2026
Conrad, an outfielder from Wake Forest, was something of a maligned first-round pick after he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury after just 97 plate appearances with the Demon Deacons. He hit .372/.495/.744 in that time, though, and clearly possesses the talent to shoot up the minor-league ranks quickly.
Luckily, Conrad appeared to have recovered toward the end of the season, taking swings and working with Cubs coaches. Assuming he's healthy for the start of the 2026 season, it's likely the 21-year-old will begin his career in Myrtle Beach or South Bend, with an eye on a quick promotion to Double-A Knoxville.
The Cubs have had ample success with college hitters in recent years, selecting Cam Smith (2024) and Matt Shaw (2023) in the first round in recent MLB drafts. Jed Hoyer has shown an affinity for taking older players with his top selection, as the Cubs have drafted four straight college players in the first round since taking Ed Howard No. 16 overall in 2020.
Conrad blossoming into a top prospect would be a boon for Hoyer, as the Cubs' farm system will lose Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros to graduation early in the 2026 season. Kevin Alcantara will join them, meaning three of the Cubs' top five prospects per MLB Pipeline will no longer be eligible for the rankings.
If the team makes another trade this offseason akin to their Kyle Tucker blockbuster, that'll deprive the affiliates of even further top-tier talent. Conrad emerging as such a player would go a long way in keeping the farm system healthy for the foreseeable future.
