MLB CBA proposal wouldn't hurt Cubs but ignores elephant in room

Negotiations have started between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association as the two sides want to give off the impression that they are doing their best to avoid a work stoppage next December. MLB submitted a proposal that wouldn't dramatically change the way the Chicago Cubs have done business in recent years, but does ignore the elephant in the room.

The biggest takeaway from the proposal is that it includes both a salary floor and a salary cap. Important context is that player benefits will also be included in the calculation for the team to get to the floor.

Regardless of the new payroll structure once there is a new CBA ratified, likely after a work stoppage, the general silver lining is that the Cubs shouldn't need to make any dramatic changes to the players they already have on the books for the 2027 season and beyond. As of this proposal, the Cubs have just under $130 million in payroll obligations for next season.

Based on the terms of MLB's proposal, the Cubs would actually need to spend money to reach the floor offered.

No, this proposal isn't close to what would end the fears that there won't be a season in 2027. Having said that, it gives you a rough starting point for where things are going to go from here.

The finer details will need to be worked, especially when it comes to the number of contracts that would be grandfathered into the new CBA. Based on this proposal, there are eight teams that would need to shed payroll.

Obviously, the Cubs aren't in that group and would have more than enough wiggle room if this proposal were to be adopted. But there's an uncomfortable conversation that Cubs fans may want to consider when it comes to the salary cap.

For the Cubs, the assumption should be, if there is a salary cap, that they will walk up to that line if the impression is that they are contender. This season, when the Cubs have established the clear expectation of contending, they entered the season approaching the first level of the luxury tax and expected to go into the tax by the end of the season.

Considering the core of the Cubs is in place for the next several years, it's fair to suggest they will have a similar behavior next offseason. Or, at the very least, once there is a new CBA in place. Meaning, Jed Hoyer could have over $100 million in space to work with.

That is the elephant in the room. When making big free-agent splashes, Hoyer's track record is filled with mixed results. Last offseason, his largest signings were Alex Bregman and Phil Maton. Bregman has been fine during his first two months in Chicago, but not quite the production one would expect from someone who landed a $175 million contract. On a smaller scale, the two-year deal with relief pitcher Phil Maton worth $14 million looks like a complete whiff for Hoyer.

If the Cubs are in a position where they have spend, that could set the stage for more misses from Hoyer. Not an ideal reality, considering Hoyer was just extended last summer despite having limited results as the team's President of Baseball Operations.

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