Cubs GM reveals where team stands on 2026 payroll and luxury tax pressure

With the signing of Alex Bregman, walking the Chicago Cubs up to the first level of the CBT, there's been speculation that the team may look to move Nico Hoerner as a way to clear space. Hoerner is set to earn $12 million in his final season before free agency, and moving him would give the Cubs financial space if they were looking to avoid paying the luxury tax in 2026.

For many reasons, it would be a scenario that didn't quite align with how the Cubs have operated over the past month. Between trading their top prospect in Owen Caissie for Edward Cabrera and signing Bregman to a long-term deal with no opt-outs and a full no-trade clause, the Cubs announced that they are in the middle of their contention window.

Trading the best player from their 2025 team to save money wouldn't be aligned with that expectation. It's why general manager Carter Hawkins' comments likely add to the increasing unlikelihood that the Cubs will trade Hoerner.

Hawkins revealed that the Cubs aren't concerned with paying the luxury tax this season, stating that the team views themselves as a contender.

Carter Hawkins clears the air on 2026 luxury tax concerns and spending limits

The only bone to pick with Hawkins' comments is that the Cubs should have operated with the same approach last season. In trading for one season of Kyle Tucker, by design, 2025 should have been a season where the Cubs pushed their chips to the middle of the table. Instead, they trimmed payroll while viewing the first level of the luxury tax as a line that couldn't be crossed.

But moving past last season, Hawkins' reveal should end the Hoerner trade speculation in earnest. Teams are still going to call the Cubs with the hope that they are willing to move him, but considering how the Gold Glove second baseman is viewed by the organization, it's unlikely that they receive an offer that truly blows them away.

The assumption is that the Cubs, at some point, will go over the first level of the CBT, and there's a silver lining in that. With the Cubs accounting for that, they now have around $23 million in space before reaching the next level at $264 million. In other words, the penalties the Cubs would pay if their payroll is at $245 million next season are the same as they would be if their payroll is at $263 million.

It suggests the Cubs could still have a move or two up their sleeve this offseason, if not, a healthy amount of space for in-season moves.