Matt Shaw is far from the first promising Chicago Cubs player to get demoted

On Tuesday evening, amid a flurry of moves, the Chicago Cubs made the difficult but understandable decision to send their top prospect, Matt Shaw, to Triple-A Iowa. It's an unfortunate outcome considering how much the team was hoping he could be a solid contributor right out of the gate, but it was clear with his .172/.294/.241 slash line and 66 wRC+ in 68 plate appearances, that he wasn't ready for the big leagues. They also needed to act with urgency in a competitive year that could very likely be their only shot with Kyle Tucker on the roster.

One thing this decision isn't, however, is an endpoint for Shaw's career. Although he didn't live up to his reputation of hitting at every level he's played, he'll almost certainly be back after more development. Given that Shaw was only just drafted in 2023 and is just 23, a return to Iowa at some point was probably the likeliest outcome. As a reminder, just last year, in a much larger 523-plate appearance sample, he lit up Double-A and Triple-A with a .284/.379/.488 slash line and 146 wRC+, all while striking out just 18.2% of the time and walking 11.9%. Yet, his minor league tenure was still quite short, especially at Iowa, where he only took 152 appearances.

More importantly, however, he's far from the first notable Cubs player in recent memory, homegrown or otherwise, to need to head back to the minors before establishing himself as a regular. Franchise hero Anthony Rizzo, for example, was sent up and down multiple times between the Cubs and Padres before breaking out big time in 2012 upon being called up in June. Rizzo's first year with the Padres, split between two separate stints, was quite ugly with a .141/.281/.242 line and 59 wRC+. Kyle Schwarber, too, benefited from a demotion in 2017 after he started the year as one of the majors' worst hitters.

Shaw wouldn't even have to look that far back to find other Cubs who went through the same woes. On the 2025 team alone, there are four key players who didn't figure it out right away. Similar conversations about Shaw were being had about Pete Crow-Armstrong just last year when he started sluggish at the plate with a .236/.295/.364 slash line and 89 wRC+. Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner both had to revisit Iowa as well to become the solid contributors they are today.

Perhaps the most encouraging example, for Shaw's sake, however, is Tucker. Although the right fielder didn't come up as a Cub, he was demoted not once, but twice with the Astros before becoming the superstar he is today. As pointed out by Cubs announcer Alex Cohen, his performance in his first major league stint was actually even worse than Shaw's in a larger 72-appearance sample — .141/.236/.203. That hasn't stopped him from becoming a career 140 wRC+ hitter and a monster in the early going for Chicago.

Matt Shaw still has plenty of time to be a star for the Cubs

This isn't to say Shaw will one day become a Tucker-level superstar, or that he'll even figure it out at the major league level at all. It is, however, a reminder that it is way too early to be concerned or make bold declarations about the team's top prospect. Shaw hasn't gone through the same depth of struggles his teammates have yet in his very young career. Moreover, there are some very real positives to build on. Besides his minor league excellence, he did, at the very least, post a strong walk rate of 14.7% in his cup of coffee with the Cubs, and his once-questionable third base defense looked solid.

The reality is that prospects who immediately find sustained success in the majors are rarities in baseball. Even some uber-tier prospects, like Mike Trout, don't pan out in their first stint, yet go on to have Hall-of-Fame level careers. Will Shaw follow that trajectory? Who knows, but that question won't be answered by 68 plate appearances in the middle of a gauntlet of very tough teams.