Latest free agent predictions force Cubs to put up or shut up

In theory, the Chicago Cubs have money to spend this offseason. A quick look at the Cubs' books shows they have nearly $100MM to spend this offseason before going over the luxury tax threshold. Despite that fact, Jed Hoyer was coy about how much spending the Cubs will actually do this winter, suggesting the front office has yet to have that discussion with ownership.

It's a conversation that will determine how the Cubs go about their need for pitching. The Cubs' looking to upgrade their pitching isn't anything new; they have had a need for a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher dating back to last offseason. Cost, whether financial or prospects, is the reason why the Cubs haven't checked that box yet.

To their credit, outside of the questionable trade for Michael Soroka, their approach has yielded success. Shota Imanaga pitched like a No. 2 starter last season, Matthew Boyd was an All-Star this season, and Colin Rea was an unsung hero for the pitching staff. However, the approach leaves the Cubs with no room for error, and when there is regression from Boyd and Imanaga, the Cubs' lack of a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher is exposed.

Latest free agent predictions force Cubs to put up or shut up

If the Cubs are going to finally address that need this offseason, they will need to put their money where their mouth is. Bleacher Report's Joel Reueter made some early contract projections for MLB free agency, and the biggest takeaway is that starting pitchers might get paid.

The pitchers at the top of the market are Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Dylan Cease. Many believe Valdez to be the better option of the three, but Reuter has Suarez getting the most money to the tune of $160MM for 6 seasons. Valdez is next, landing a $135MM for 5 years projection, and Cease rounds it out with a projection of $125MM for 5 years.

That is Yu Darvish type money, which is ironic, since Darvish represents the last time the Cubs were willing to spend at the top of the market for a starting pitcher. That front office was led by Theo Epstein, and his successor doesn't have the same philosophy when it comes to lucrative long-term deals for pitching. Factor in the likely work stoppage for the 2027 season, and it seems clear that Hoyer will once again take a creative approach to addressing the Cubs' biggest need instead of an aggressive approach.