Cubs’ 2026 payroll situation leaves Jed Hoyer with no easy way out

The offseason has arrived for the Chicago Cubs, and the first question what will be on the top of every fan's mind is what the payroll situation will look like. It's often a polarizing discussion for the Cubs, considering they operate as if they are in a small market, but they are in the third-largest market in Major League Baseball. It's also a dreadful conversation after how last offseason ended. The Cubs saved $30MM by trading Cody Bellinger, and a failed pursuit of Alex Bregman later, they didn't exactly return to the mark that they were at after the 2024 season.

The Cubs finished 2024 with a luxury tax payroll just under $240MM. They were slightly over the first level of the competitive balance threshold at $237MM, making them a repeat offender taxed at 20%. As things stand, the Cubs should finish the 2025 season around $227,684,792. The first level of the luxury tax was set at $241,000 for the 2025 season, so the Cubs had over $13MM in flexibility that they left unused.

The idea was that the first level of the luxury tax threshold was meant to be a cap for what the Cubs' front office could spend. In a season where the Cubs suggested they were all-in by trading for one season of Kyle Tucker, it is inexcusable that, by their previously set standards, they didn't spend like they had their chips pushed to the middle of the table.

Cubs 2026 payroll outlook is begging for action from Jed Hoyer

Looking ahead to the offseason, the Cubs have a significant amount of money coming off the books this winter. As of now, the Cubs' 2026 payroll is $149,652,380. They'll have nearly $95MM in space before they reach the first level of the competitive balance threshold. So, in theory, the Cubs have plenty of space to have an active and aggressive offseason.

The downside is that there is a looming work stoppage after the 2026 season, and a significant chunk of the Cubs' roster will become free agents. For those two reasons alone, it will be curious to watch how the Cubs operate this offseason. They have the space to flaunt their only advantage over the Brewers and spend with ease, but the looming work stoppage seemed to play a factor in their trade talks at the deadline this past season. It would be fair to assume that such hesitancy will also be applied to deals they look to make this offseason.