Latest Cubs signing can deliver on tantalizing talent, but only if fans are patient

Considering that Chicago Cubs fans had spent the past few days wondering if the front office was done making offseason moves, it's fair to call the Shelby Miller signing a well-timed transaction.

Of course, the wrinkle with the Miller signing is that he isn't actually going to impact the 2026 team. His multi-year deal with the Cubs was made with an eye on 2027, seeing as he's recovering from the second Tommy John surgery of his career, which he underwent in October.

The veteran right-hander actually has quite a few ties to the Cubs, from his (ugly) one-game cameo with the team in 2021 to his role as the centerpiece in the Arizona Diamondbacks' return for shortstop Dansby Swanson in a 2015 trade with the Atlanta Braves. He also ended last year with the Milwaukee Brewers, facing the North Siders twice in mid-August.

Understanding that he won't be able to contribute to this team for at least another 12 months, what should Cubs fans expect from Miller when he does eventually take the mound in Chicago again?

Shelby Miller brings swing-and-miss stuff to the '27 Cubs bullpen

First, we need to acknowledge some red flags. Miller won't return to the mound until he's 36 years old, by which point his raw stuff may have deteriorated to the point that he's no longer an effective reliever. Injuries also aren't anything new — he's thrown at least 50 innings in a season just once since 2016.

That being said, fans have been frustrated with the front office's approach to bullpen construction in recent years. While Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Aaron Civale, and others turned in strong efforts with the team last year, they all left via free agency this offseason. Like the deals given to Phil Maton and Jacob Webb (club option for 2027), Miller's contract is designed to give the Cubs some certainty among their relief corps moving forward.

If he can return to the form he showed with the Diamondbacks in the first half of 2025, when he posted a 1.98 ERA in 36 1/ innings, that'll be a very good thing. Like Maton, Miller produces impressive peripherals and huge swing-and-miss numbers. His chase (35.8 percent), whiff (31.7 percent), and strikeout rates (29.0 percent) all would have ranked above the 80th percentile in 2025 if he had enough innings to qualify.

And unlike Maton, Miller deploys some impressive velocity to get those results. His four-seam fastball averaged more than 95 MPH last year, a noticeable jump over where it had been in years prior. It's valid to be concerned about his ability to keep that up after returning from yet another major arm surgery, but even if he drops a fraction of tick from his heater, he'll still be one of the harder throwers in the Cubs' pen.

Seeing as Miller will make a meager amount over the life of this deal (about $2.5 million guaranteed total, per ESPN's Jesse Rogers), this is an intelligent low-risk, high-reward signing by the front office. If nothing else, you can now pencil in a few Opening Day 2027 roster spots for various relievers, which is more than you could say for the Cubs in recent offseasons.