Latest 2026 projections are ready to hand the Cubs the NL Central crown

After a very productive offseason and a 92-win 2025 campaign, everyone seems to be buying the Chicago Cubs in 2026. Bleacher Report notably ranked them as the second-best team behind only the powerhouse Dodgers, and FanGraphs' ZiPS projected them to win the National League Central. Alas, it's impossible to ever feel too confident with the Milwaukee Brewers looming as seemingly perennial odds-beaters. Last year was maybe one of the best examples yet, when they overcame the loss of Corbin Burnes to win a franchise-best 97 games and boat race the Cubs yet again.

Trading Freddy Peralta and Caleb Durbin hasn't exactly bolstered confidence that they'll take a step back in 2026, either. ZiPS still had them at 86 wins, just one behind the Cubs, and it's hard not to look at what they got back for their ace with some fear that they'll be able to turn top prospects Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams into stars. They simply always find a way to be a great team. Making the Central more annoying, too, is a Pirates team that finally loaded up on some offense with Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, and, most recently, Marcell Ozuna, and a Reds team that brought back Cubs boogeyman Eugenio Suarez.

Aside from the Cardinals, who are in full retreat, the Central across the board looks interesting. Are the Reds and Pirates actually good? Probably not, but they have the potential to surprise people and take games from the Cubs and Brewers between Pittsburgh's stellar pitching and Cincinnati's young hitters. With that in mind, Baseball Prospectus' 2026 PECOTA projections released on Tuesday make a lot of sense, save for one surprising detail — it sees Chicago as the clear favorite to take the NL Central crown.

PECOTA is the high man on the Cubs, projecting them for 90.1 wins and a staggering ten wins ahead of the Brewers. Moreover, it has everyone else, save for the Cardinals at a ghastly 66-96, bunched within two wins of each other. In other words, the system is not buying Milwaukee and doesn't see much difference between them (80.2 wins), the Reds (78.7), and the Pirates (79.6). That projection for the Northsiders would also be third-best in the National League and fourth-best in all of baseball, behind only the Braves (90.7), the Mariners (93.6), and, you guessed it, the Dodgers (104.1).

PECOTA projections indicate the Cubs should press their advantage

If this all sounds eerily familiar, though, you aren't mistaken. As far as the Cubs and Brewers are concerned, these projections are nearly identical to their 2025 numbers, save for a few tenths of wins. At least in the eyes of PECOTA, neither team is meaningfully better or worse after their respective offseasons. That's just another indication that projections need to be taken with a grain of salt and treated more as one singular data point when evaluating a team heading into the season.

What it does offer is more confirmation that the Cubs are in a good spot to make noise again in 2026. Though it's perhaps not as good as hoped, considering the team added Alex Bregman to anchor the lineup and replace Kyle Tucker and Edward Cabrera as a high-upside rotation play, while also rebuilding the bullpen and bench. Rather, these projections, in conjunction with everything else, should push Jed Hoyer to keep going. He and Craig Counsell have both been vocal in expressing that the team needs more depth, yet the most impactful option, Zac Gallen, has only continued to look more like a pipe dream with each new report.

Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt still exist as potential options to bolster starting depth, but other potential targets are dwindling. The question remains if the team can pull off one more move to cap off what's otherwise been an excellent offseason haul and push their chances of finally taking down the Brewers up just a bit more.