Kyle Tucker’s decision leaves Cubs with a messy fallout and one silver lining

Procedurally, Kyle Tucker's exit from the Chicago Cubs was confirmed today. Two weeks after the Cubs extended the qualifying offer to Tucker, as expected, the National League Silver Slugger has turned down the offer. While the Cubs will be lurking in the background on the chance that Tucker's market falls back to them, every indication is that he will be getting paid like the top free-agent position player on the market.

The silver lining for the Cubs is that they are certain to receive draft-pick compensation from the team that signs Tucker. The exact pick will be determined by what the signing team's financial status is, and if they paid the luxury tax in 2025.

That scenario seems to have shifted the Cubs' approach to free agency, as they don't appear to be shying away from free agents who have a qualifying offer attached. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Dylan Cease, and Michael King have all been connected to the Cubs, and all received a qualifying offer from their former teams. While the Cubs have avoided these free agents in the past, gaining a draft pick through Tucker's departure seems to have shifted their philosophy for this offseason.

Kyle Tucker's Cubs' exit seems all but confirmed after turning down the team's qualifying offer.

As of now, it seems that the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays have moved to the front of the pack when it comes to Tucker's market. The Dodgers have a need in the outfield, and Tucker would be a clear answer. However, there has been some indication that they may not be as financially motivated as a team like the Blue Jays.

Of course, the mess it creates for the Cubs is that they don't appear to be motivated to replace the impact Tucker had on the offense during the first half of the season. While Hoyer points to the team's first-half success scoring runs as the reason why offensive upgrades aren't the priority this winter, he is skating past the fact that the success was tied to Tucker performing at an MVP level.

The struggles of the Cubs' offense to close out the season can be directly tied to when Tucker was injured and playing through a prolonged slump. Add in the regression from Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki no longer having protection, and it looked plain ugly for the Cubs' starting lineup at the end of the regular season and into the playoffs.

If the Cubs' plan to replace Tucker is solely tied to Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros, that would be a massive failure for Jed Hoyer's front office.