Jed Hoyer and the Chicago Cubs are probably done adding starting pitching

Now that Roki Sasaki is officially not signing with the Chicago Cubs, it's hard to imagine the team's President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer making another impactful starting pitching move.

Chicago needed starting pitching going into this offseason, especially after Kyle Hendricks left for a deal with the Los Angeles Angels in November. The clear locks for rotation roles are Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga, with the other two spots up for grabs.

Javier Assad made 29 starts for the Cubs last season, and he pitched well overall with a 3.73 ERA. However some of Assad's peripheral numbers are concerning, particularly his 4.64 FIP and 1.4 WHIP. Assad also struggles to pitch deep into ballgames and rarely made it into the sixth or seventh inning. This puts more tax on the bullpen, which also still has question marks going into 2025. A long-relief/spot-starter role would be a better fit for Assad, a job he excelled in during the 2023 season.

So with two spots in the rotation effectively open, Hoyer opted to bring in Colin Rea (1 year, $5 million) and Matthew Boyd (2 years, $29 million) on team-friendly deals. These are not ideal options for a variety of reasons. Boyd is heading into his age-34 season and has an extensive track record of elbow issues in recent years. The southpaw has not pitched a full season since 2019 and he has undergone two surgeries to repair his throwing arm in that time.

Boyd admittedly made an impact with the Guardians down the stretch in 2024, with a 2.28 ERA in eleven starts including three in the playoffs. Hoyer seems to be hoping Boyd can replicate that magic over a full season but it's quite a gamble.

Rea isn't as much of a lock for the final rotation spot since he has a similar profile to Assad. The 34-year-old has been a swingman with the Milwaukee Brewers for the past two seasons, with a 4.40 ERA in 292 1/3 innings pitched.

Why are the Cubs done?

It's a two-pronged answer. The first thing is that pitchers are demanding more money than ever this offseason, at a time when the Cubs are acting particularly stingy with the payroll. After slightly exceeding the first luxury tax threshold in 2024, the team is going to make sure they don't repeat the mistake in 2025. Meaning they are going to want to be comfortably below the first threshold ($241 million).

This outlook explains why the team didn't even bother checking in on guys like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried or Nathan Eovaldi. Each of these players would have significantly bolstered the Cubs' rotation, but cost anywhere from $25-35 million annually. The Cubs are simply prioritizing their financial flexibility over wins on the field.

Trading for a starter will also command a substantial load of prospects given the current market. Luis Castillo and Pablo Lopez have been rumored to be available for the right deal, but both of those guys are under team control for three more years, pitch at a high level and would cost over $21 million a year. The Cubs have already cleared out their third base depth in the Kyle Tucker trade and a deal to land Lopez or Castillo would likely cost at least two more high-end prospects.

The second answer is depth. After adding Rea and Boyd, the Cubs' pitching depth is pretty impressive. If Rea and Boyd indeed fill out the last two rotation spots, Assad, Jordan Wicks and Cody Poteet figure to be the 40-man depth if a starter goes down with an injury. Iowa Cubs starters Brandon Birdsell and Connor Noland are also good options who are coming off decent 2024 campaigns. Although I'd like to see one more high-end addition, this depth is certainly a strength for the Cubs that will inevitably come in handy over the 162-game season.

Maybe Hoyer will use this depth as leverage for another big trade, using either Wicks or Assad as trade chips. It would be a smart way to land a rotation-altering arm like Castillo or Lopez, but it feels far-fetched for the Cubs right now. Unless Hoyer can swing a deal that doesn't involve trading Matt Shaw and/or Owen Caissie, the Cubs likely already have their starting rotation options set for 2025.