Cubs Rumors: Pablo Lopez could be fallback option after Jesus Luzardo deal fell apart

The Minnesota Twins are reportedly listening to trade offers for ace starting pitcher Pablo Lopez, possibly opening up an avenue for the Chicago Cubs to swoop in now that the Jesús Luzardo trade talks have cooled down.

The Lopez news came from a report by Jeff Passan, who also said that the trade talks could become more serious given the steep price for starting pitching on the current market. The Cubs have already dipped into that market when they signed Matthew Boyd to a $29 million deal for two years. That is fairly steep for a guy who has only thrown 243 innings over his past five seasons.

With roughly $40 million to work with for the rest of the offseason after the Cody Bellinger trade, the Cubs could look to acquire a guy like Lopez to round out the rotation. He is owed $21.75 million per year over the next three seasons, leaving room for the Cubs to still add bullpen arms and bench bats.

The right-hander is heading into his age 29 season with a higher floor and less risk than many of the starters left on the market. Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler will likely exceed Boyd's cost and come with serious injury concerns. There aren't many other reliable options available aside from Corbin Burnes, who is almost certainly out of the Cubs' price range.

But Lopez is coming off three straight seasons of making 32 starts and eating a significant portion of innings. A right-handed horse like Lopez, who can pump up the strikeout numbers, would give the Cubs a satisfying balance to the rotation.

How good is Pablo Lopez?

Lopez would slot in at the top of the Cubs' rotation alongside Justin Steele. Along with Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga, the Cubs would potentially have four starters capable of pitching to a high level while simultaneously eating a significant amount of innings if they stay healthy.

Lopez has excelled at getting hitters to chase (k% of 25.6 in 2024) while limiting his walks (5.3% walk percentage in 2024). He has established himself as a reliable starter the past three seasons, where he has exceeded 180 innings pitched all three years. In that time he also has a 3.83 ERA with 606 strikeouts over 559 innings. Lopez's fastball also had an average velocity of 95mph last season. Not that velocity matters a ton, but he would be the hardest-throwing member of the rotation, for what it's worth.

The main issue here is the price tag. Trading for a starter of this caliber is going to be expensive and other teams will undoubtedly be interested. His stats and contract structure are similar to Seattle Mariners ace Luis Castillo, who is also potentially available but has a no-trade clause. Owen Caissie (Cubs no. 2 prospect) would likely have to be part of the package, as well as a big-league-ready starter like Jordan Wicks or Javier Assad. I could also see the Twins asking for another top prospect like James Triantos (Cubs no. 5) and a throw-in pitcher further down the prospect chart.

That's a hefty haul, but it may be necessary if the Cubs are in the win-now mode that the Kyle Tucker trade seemed to signify. Lopez would push guys like Wicks, Assad, and Cody Poteet down the depth chart and give the Cubs a more competitive edge. He is also a much safer option than a lot of the pitchers still available and under team control through 2027. This is a guy the Cubs need to make a run at if the Twins are genuinely looking to move him.