Javier Assad could be the one wrinkle in otherwise easy Cubs arbitration decisions for 2027

While a large portion of the offseason will be in a holding pattern after December 1, the expectation is that the month of November could be a busy time for teams. Jed Hoyer indicated as much during his end-of-season press conference last Friday for the Chicago Cubs, suggesting that there could be a flurry of activity from teams leading up to when the current CBA expires at the start of December.

There are housecleaning items that will need to be done, including teams tendering a contract to arbitration-eligible players. For the Cubs, this time around, most of their decisions are straightforward.

Complete list of Cubs' projected arbitrations salaries for 2027 and predicted outcomes

As always, a hat tip to MLB Trade Rumors, as they take time at the start of each offseason to project the figures for every arbitration-eligible player across baseball. For Cubs, this offseason, they have 12 arbitration-eligible players.

Of the 12 arbitration-eligible players, there are ten players who should be considered a lock to be tendered a contract.

• Justin Steele, $6.8 million
• Edward Cabrera, $4.8 million
• Braxton Garrett, $1.6 million
• Miguel Amaya, $1.7 million
• Ryan Rolison, $1.1 million
• Michael Busch, $5.4 million
• Ben Brown, $1.3 million
• Daniel Palencia, $1.2 million
• Javier Assad, $2.3 million
• Ethan Roberts, $800K

The first three are all expected to be a part of the Cubs' pitching plans next season. Steele, in theory, should be healthy for a return to the rotation with no restrictions. Cabrera is the Cubs' biggest project, but given that they are less than a year removed from trading Owen Caissie for him, the experiment is going to continue. When Garrett was acquired at the trade deadline, the expectation was that it was moved geared toward the plans for 2027.

As for the others, they have varying levels of importance to the Cubs next season. Amaya and Busch figure to be fixtures in the starting lineup, and Rolison and Palencia should be staples in the bullpen. As for Ben Brown, while his neck injury clouds his status, given what he looked like when the Cubs last saw him, they are going to hope for a plan to be established to keep him healthy.

A quick note on Javier Assad, don't be surprised if you hear in the days following the World Series that the Cubs have declined his club option. That likely will be a procedural move, considering it's worth $3.3 million. The Cubs can decline the option while still maintaining their control over Assad, and likely at a cheaper price.

For Ethan Roberts, if he were projected to make money of consequence, the Cubs likely would non-tender him. At a projected salary under $1 million, the guess is the Cubs keep him around and see if he wins a spot in the bullpen during spring training next year.

Seperate of those nine, the Cubs have two clear non-tender candidates this offseason.

• Gabriel Arias, $1.3 million
• Tyler Austin, $1.3 million

Arias was a late-season addition to the Cubs' roster, giving them extra infield depth while Dansby Swanson was recovering from an oblique strain. He also found his way on the Cubs' playoff roster, but that was likely tied to Alex Bregman not being able to play third base.

As for Austin, knee surgery in spring training prevented him from being a part of the plan for the Cubs in 2026. Austin likely will be non-tendered, but given the hope the Cubs had for him, it may not be a total surprise if the Cubs sign him to a minor-league deal.

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