It sure sounds like Walker Buehler won't be joining the Cubs' rotation this offseason

There was a sense of surprise last week when it was reported that the Chicago Cubs were signing starting pitcher Matthew Boyd to a two-year deal worth $29MM.

Surprise in the sense that the Cubs seem to be leaning heavily into the performance Boyd had when he returned from Tommy John surgery this past season with the Cleveland Guardians. Boyd was impressive, posting a 2.72 ERA in 8 starts, but his career ERA of 4.85 would suggest that the Cubs are taking a large gamble on the 33-year-old pitcher outperforming his expectations.

Rather than gambling on Boyd, it seems like it would have more sense for the Cubs to add former Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler. Buehler closed out the World Series for the Dodgers in Game 5 against the New York Yankees and considering he's only made 28 total starts over the last two years, there was a belief that he was in the market for a one-year prove it deal.

That may not be the case.

The latest from Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic suggests that the rising price of the pitching market this offseason could see Buehler land a deal with more contractual and financial security. If that is the case, the stretch between 2018 and 2021 in his career, when he was one of the best starting pitchers in the National League, likely will see him land a deal larger than what Boyd signed for with the Cubs.

With Boyd now a member of the Cubs' starting rotation, it seems unlikely that the Cubs will place a priority on Buehler. Given the injury history of both pitchers, having them as the primary additions to a starting rotation meant to be the reason the Cubs contend in 2025 seems like it would be setting the team up to fail.

With the Winter Meetings beginning on Monday, it sounds like the Cubs will utilize the trade market to add an established starting pitcher who can be placed near the top of their rotation.