2 Matthew Boyd stats that are encouraging, and 2 that are concerning

The Chicago Cubs have inked a controversial deal with starting pitcher Matthew Boyd, causing a mixed bag of emotions to surface from the fan base.

Boyd looked sharp during his brief stint with the Cleveland Guardians, making him the second pitcher the Cubs have poached away from Cleveland after they traded for Eli Morgan last month. However, there are concerns about whether the veteran can effectively replicate his 2024 numbers over a full season.

Encouraging: 2.72 ERA in 2024

Boyd surprised many when he made his 2024 debut for the Guardians in August, which coincidentally came against the Cubs. The 33-year-old threw 80 pitches, struck out six batters, and gave up just one earned run over 5.1 innings pitched. This game was likely very impactful on the Cubs' eventual deal with Boyd since they had a front-row seat for his resurgence.

Boyd rode that success to a stellar 2.72 season ERA (3.29 FIP) and he threw a lot of quality innings for a Cleveland team that had a thin starting rotation in 2024. The team also leaned on him in the playoffs, where he started two games against the Detroit Tigers and one against the New York Yankees. Boyd's outing against New York was particularly impressive, as he was able to navigate 5 innings and only give up one earned run against a lineup with two MVP-caliber players.

ERA has always been a stat that Boyd has struggled to keep below 4.00 in his career so this recent success was one of the best stretches of his career on paper.

Concerning: 39.2 innings pitched

The main concern that I and others have with the Boyd signing is that the Cubs just pledged $29 million to a guy who only threw 39.2 innings last year. Moreover, Boyd has been unable to complete a full season of work since 2019, with just 263 total innings over his last five years. These shortened stints with Detroit and Seattle were mostly due to elbow injuries that eventually led to a Tommy John surgery in 2023.

For a front office that is notoriously gun-shy of taking risks, it's fairly surprising the Cubs are gambling this much on a reclamation pitcher who is heading into his age 34 season. Boyd staying healthy will be a massive factor in gauging whether this gamble pays off and the track record is not pretty on paper.

Encouraging: 10.44 Strikeouts per 9

Another good thing about Boyd's 2024 numbers was his ability to strike out batters at an above-average rate. This is something we saw a glimpse of during that 2019 campaign, where Boyd struck out a whopping 238 batters over 185.1 innings pitched.

Reaching anywhere close to those heights will make this a fantastic signing by the Cubs. Boyd has never been a hard thrower, as his fastball has typically averaged around 92 mph. He relied heavily on his changeup and slider to make hitters swing and miss at a solid rate in 2024. Boyd will likely need to keep a good feel for his secondary pitches if he is able to see that same kind of success in the future.

Concerning: Career 4.85 ERA

Aside from his limited workload in recent years, Boyd has not been particularly sharp when he was on the mound. ERA is not the only benchmark for evaluating pitchers, but it is certainly a big one, and 4.85 is fairly high for a guy making $14.5 million a year.

Even during his best season in 2019, Boyd posted a 4.56 ERA. The southpaw's largest sample in recent years was in 2023, where he made 15 starts but again his ERA sat at 5.45. Jed Hoyer seems to think he can get the 2024 version of Boyd for the next two seasons and maybe a contributing factor will be expectations.

During much of Boyd's time with Detroit, he was highly regarded and, at one point, expected to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. This was partially due to the Tigers not having many quality major-league arms but Boyd was still a go-to guy for years.

Even with Cleveland last year, Boyd was thrust into a pivotal role in a slim rotation. But now, Boyd figures to be the fourth or fifth starter for the Cubs, behind Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon. Perhaps Boyd doesn't need to post flashy numbers if he can eat innings for the Cubs and simply help them get to the postseason.