Injury to huge potential Cubs trade target could change the equation at the deadline

It's no secret that a top trade deadline priority for the Chicago Cubs this year will be pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Tommy John surgery for Cade Horton, combined with a flexor strain to Justin Steele that will extend his absence until well after the All-Star break, has left the rotation without two of its highest-ceiling rotation pieces. The bullpen is, mercifully, starting to get healthy and finding a few diamonds in the rough to hold down the fort, so their biggest priority is arguably another starter. Unfortunately, one of the biggest and most obvious options now carries some questions health-wise.

Minnesota Twins ace Joe Ryan has been viewed as a dream Cubs trade target going back to last year, and for good reason. Minnesota is currently in rebuilding mode following its massive 2025 fire sale, and the right-hander represents one of their most valuable pieces, with a career 3.79 ERA and 3.77 FIP. He again seemed prime for another strong season, but after leaving his most recent start against the Blue Jays after only two batters, alarm bells were sounding.

Without question, any variety of injury to a pitcher's throwing arm is ominous. Especially unsettling is that his final pitch of the day was just under 91 MPH, down from his average of around 92-94. For the most part, Ryan has been immune to these ailments, save for 2024, when he suffered a Grade 2 teres major strain that cost him the final 49 games of the season. That was a serious injury, but he managed to avoid surgery and went on to pitch an excellent 2025 season with a career-high 171 innings and career-best 3.42 ERA with a 3.74 FIP.

Imaging showed no structural damage in his elbow and he's expected to make his next start, but you can bet the Twins - and any team with interest in shoring up the rotation this summer will be keeping a close eye on him. Ryan's consistency on the mound made him a perfect potential fit for a Cubs team that otherwise has some uncertainties.

Most of their starting rotation either has a spotty injury history, like Matthew Boyd and Edward Cabrera, or has experienced a lengthy stint on the IL in Chicago, like Shota Imanaga, who missed nearly two months last year with a hamstring injury. Though not quite a traditional workhorse, the Twins ace has never thrown fewer than 133 innings since becoming a full-time big-leaguer and has only had one full season with an ERA above 4. Even then, his expected ERA for 2023 was a much rosier 3.56 compared to the 4.51 he was saddled with.

Another point in his favor was that Ryan isn't expected to hit free agency until after 2027. The Cubs have all of Imanaga, Boyd, and Jameson Taillon on expiring contracts, so it wouldn't hurt to add some control at the deadline. The fact that he's only locked up for another year likely would've made the price high, but a bit more manageable than other controllable arms, too.

Joe Ryan's injury could complicate the Cubs' entire deadline strategy

There's a chance Ryan will turn out fine and this was just a minor scare but if he ends up making a significant stay on the IL, it could completely change the dynamic of the trade deadline, assuming the Twins are willing to deal him. If things shake out to where he's not on the move, that's one less obvious option for the Cubs and other teams to vie for. Again, the fact that he's an obvious controllable trade candidate could sting all the more given how much rarer those types of deals tend to be in July.

Even if they didn't land Ryan, the mere existence of him on the market would at least help the Cubs' pursuits by giving other teams another target. On the flip side, though, some unexpectedly cold starts could create a few unforeseen sellers, like the Red Sox and Mets, to pull from. Sandy Alcantara also remains a name to watch if Miami falls out of the playoff periphery, given his impressive start to the year with a 3.04 ERA. There's still just a lot of uncertainty this far out, but a significant injury could muddy the waters even more in a year where the line between buyer and seller may not be as clearly defined.

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