Craig Counsell reveals latest Justin Steele timeline after deflating injury setback

The Chicago Cubs confirmed that Justin Steele suffered a setback in his recovery from UCL surgery last season. Craig Counsell revealed on Tuesday that Steele has suffered a flexor strain and will be shut down for the next month. Steele will be reevaluated before resuming his throwing program, but the setback pushes back when Cubs fans can expect to see him back in the rotation.

The rough timeline provided by Counsell is after the All-Star break in July. Even that timeline feels optimistic. Steele's ramp-up program will be reset by the time he can resume throwing, so it will require him to throw a bullpen session before facing live hitters and an eventual minor-league rehab assignment.

If all goes well, it feels like August would be the more accurate time for when Steele could make his return to the Cubs. That is extending the Cubs the benefit of the doubt, something they may no longer have with the wave of pitching injuries they have had this season.

Justin Steele is now an afterthought for the Cubs this season

Initially, the expectation was that Steele would be ready by the start of June. A scenario that would have given the 30-year-old four months to get worked back up to being the top-of-the-rotation pitcher he once was for the Cubs. By the time October arrived, assuming the Cubs were in the playoffs, the goal was for Steele to be fully ramped up with no restriction on his innings.

Intentional or not, Steele's initial return timeline also may have played a factor in the Cubs' bidding for Lucas Giolito. The Cubs were outbid by the San Diego Padres, and it felt like Steele's looming return was one of the reasons why Jed Hoyer and Co. may not have had the desire to top San Diego's offer. Knowing what they know now, it seems like the Cubs would have operated differently.

The Cubs have lost the crutch that is Steele's return. No, they weren't expecting him to immediately return to being a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but they certainly were accounting for his innings. Now, anything Steele provides the Cubs in 2026 should be viewed as a bonus. The onus is now on Hoyer to add an established starting pitcher to the rotation at some point this summer. Anything else would be a failure.

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