How does the Chicago Cubs rotation stack up against the rest of the NL Central?

With the Chicago Cubs taking a gamble on an impressive 39.2 innings from Matthew Boyd in the form of a surprisingly expensive two-year, $29 million contract, it appears that the team is done dipping into the free-agent market to address the starting rotation, according to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of the North Side Territory podcast.

While disappointing for fans who dreamed of a top-of-the-rotation arm like Max Fried being added, the Cubs' projected starting rotation doesn't look half bad in comparison to their NL Central rivals.

While lacking a true ace, the duo of Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga are a strong duo to lead a rotation. Most teams would be happy to have either in holding down the number-two starter spot in their rotation, so to have both is a strong start.

From the middle of the rotation on, there are both reasons for optimism and concern.

Is Jameson Taillon going to pitch to a 4.84 ERA as he did in 2023 or a 3.27 ERA as he did in 2024? Will Matthew Boyd stay healthy and build upon an improved strikeout rate in 2024 after returning from Tommy John surgery? Will Javier Assad, owner of a 3.73 ERA but a 4.64 FIP last season, continue to grow after his first full year as a starter?

While those questions are valid, the upside and depth of the Cubs' rotation puts them in a favorable position when compared to the NL Central peers.

The Cubs might have the NL Central's most complete starting rotation

There's a long way to go between now and opening day, but as things currently stand, a compelling argument can be made that the Cubs have the best starting rotation in the division.

Milwaukee is a pitching factory, seemingly producing top-of-the-rotation arms out of nowhere. With that said, there are a lot of questions throughout their rotation. Freddy Peralta has put up back-to-back 200+ strikeout seasons, but his career ERA of 3.79 is more of a solid number-two or number-three than a true ace. Brandon Woodruff is certainly capable of leading a rotation when healthy; however, after an injury-plagued 2023 season, he missed all of 2024 following shoulder surgery.

With the St. Louis Cardinals presumably rebuilding heading into 2025, their rotation could look much different on opening day. However, as presently constructed, the Cardinals have some legitimate pitchers despite the age of some of their starters. Led by Sonny Gray, 35, the Cardinals lack a true ace, and Gray's performance has been somewhat volatile over the years. His 3.84 ERA last season, while good, was a far cry from his 2.79 mark in 2023 with the Minnesota Twins.

Beyond him, Erick Fedde, 31, and his 3.30 ERA was good last season. Miles Mikolas, 36, and his 5.35 ERA was not. Andre Pallante looked good posting a 3.78 ERA while transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation, but there are questions about how well he'll continue to handle a bigger workload. Lastly, Steven Matz, 33, is another member of the over-30 over-5.00 ERA club in St. Louis.

Cincinnati is led by flame-throwing right-hander Hunter Greene, whose average fastball velocity of 97.8 MPH is enough to make even the best hitters queasy. The question for the 25-year-old is whether or not he can keep the ball in the yard. His sparkling 2.75 ERA last season was largely a by-product of his career-low 0.72 HR/9, but with HR/9 marks of 1.53 and 1.72 in 2023 and 2022, respectively, there are legitimate questions as to how sustainable that number is for him.

Beyond Greene, Brady Singer (3.71 ERA), Andrew Abbott (3.72 ERA), and Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA) all turned in solid years in 2024. The concern for the Reds is at the fifth starter spot where lefty Nick Lodolo and his 4.76 ERA left something to be desired. At the end of the day, Cincy's rotation's success or failure rests greatly on what Hunter Greene ultimately becomes.

Lastly, the Pittsburgh Pirates may boast the best individual starting pitcher in the division. At just 22 years old, Paul Skenes produced a sterling 1.96 ERA in 23 starts (133 innings pitched) while striking out 11.50 batters per nine and generating a ground ball rate of 51.3%. He has the look of a pitcher who could quickly arrive in the "best starter in the MLB" conversation very quickly.

However, beyond Skenes, the Pirates don't have much. Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, and Bailey Falter all posted ERAs over 4 in 2024. While there might be some upside for some of those pitchers, none seem like the kind of pitcher who jumps out as another top-of-the-rotation arm.

To that end, when you really look at the Cubs' rotation it has a strong case to be the best in the division. Yes, they lack a top-end ace like Skenes or Bailey might be, but one through five it is hard to argue that any other team has a more consistent group with a higher floor than Chicago.