How does Matt Shaw's debut compare to best third basemen in Cubs history?

Having survived two weeks of introductory misery followed by a demotion to Triple-A, Matt Shaw is now playing third base the way the Cubs front office and fans hoped and expected.

His play since being recalled in mid-May prompts a new and more invigorating question: How good will the 23-year-old rookie eventually become?

Stacking up Matt Shaw's rookie season with other legendary Cubs 3B

His first-year totals through June 10 — and especially since his May 19 return — provide hope that Shaw may, in time, rank among the better third basemen in franchise history.

That, obviously, will take continued development. Both offensively and defensively, Shaw is no finished product. But, a comparison of Shaw’s first 38 games with the first 38 games of third basemen who set the standard on the North Side provides plenty of reason for hope.

Shaw’s production to date holds up well against the debuts of such third base legends as Ron Santo, Stan Hack, Kris Bryant and Aramis Ramirez. Those four went on to establis themselves as probably the four best third basemen in franchise history.

Here’s how Shaw’s first 38 games — that is, through action of June 10 — stacks up against the team’s positional legends.

Counting stats

Shaw’s first 38 games have yielded 33 base hits, a representative number. As rookies, Bryant (38 in 2015) and Santo (37 in 1960) had more, Ramirez (31 with Pittsburgh in 1998) and Hack (27 in 1932) had fewer.

Santo (14) and Bryant (13) both had more extra-base hits than Shaw (10), but he has the edge on Ramirez (9) and Hack (8).

Bryant (31) and Santo (24) had a clear edge on Shaw in RBIs, but some of that may be attributable to the fact that Shaw has consistently batted in the lower-leveraged eighth or ninth spots in the batting order. Through his first 38 games in 2015, Bryant generally batted second or third, while Santo was introduced to the lineup in 1960 as the team’s third or sixth hitter.

Because they showed power virtually from the outset, Bryant and Santo stood out through 38 games in one of the least visible, yet most important counting stats: Win Probability Added. The table below shows the running WPA totals for Shaw and the four Cubs third base standouts through the first 38 games of their careers.

Rate stats

Shaw’s slash line places him squarely in the center among his third base predecessors. He lacks the early power of Bryant or Santo, but more than holds his own with Ramirez and Hack.

 Here are the lines for all five through the first 38 games of their careers.

These numbers suggest that the early arc of Shaw’s career most resembles that of Ramirez, who was traded to the Cubs in 2003 and eventually produced a .294/.356/.5631 career slash line with the team through 2011. Would Cubs fans take that from a more matured Shaw? In a heartbeat.

Defensive stats

Modern defensive stats do not exist for most of the Cubs’ best third basemen, so this discussion is forced to start with that old and hoary standby, fielding percentage. But in that category, Shaw stands out.

Through 38 games, he has the best fielding percentage (.968) of any Cub third baseman who would go on to attain front-rank status. Santo ranked second at .963, followed by Ramirez (.958), Bryant (.933) and Hack (.902).

Santo eventually retired with the highest fielding percentage (.954) among the group, so Shaw’s early numbers suggest that he may eventually win recognition as one of the best fielding third baseman in team history.

Shaw’s ‘modern’ defensive numbers are superior to either Bryant or Ramirez through their first 38 games. At +2.0, he leads Bryant (-1.0) in Defensive Runs Saved, and at -2.0 he leads both Bryant (-3.0) and Ramirez (-8.0) in Total Zone Rating.

In their totality, the numbers suggest that Shaw is on course to be the best fielding third baseman of the bunch. Offensively, he profiles as superior to either Hack or Ramirez, but not on a level with Santo or Bryant.   

The obvious caveat is that we are talking about a 38-game sample. There is (hopefully) a lot left of Shaw's career on the North Side, and any conclusions we draw now can be rendered obsolete by the end of the season, if not sooner.

However small that sample may be, though, it does provide a statistical basis for believing that, in Shaw, the Cubs have solved their third base problem.