Early projections show the Cubs' most important player regressing in 2026

Pete Crow-Armstrong's 2025 season was a true tale of two halves, as he turned in a 131 wRC+ along with 25 home runs and 27 steals in the first half en route to being named an All-Star for the first time in his career.

He followed that up with a mind-numbing encore, hitting just six homers (and stealing just eight bags) while posting a 72 wRC+ following the Midsummer Classic. His second-half struggles were a big reason the Chicago Cubs lost control of the NL Central, as well as their eventual defeat in the NLDS.

Nevertheless, it was a breakout campaign for PCA, as he finished as a member of the 30-30 club while living up to the hype with his glove.

With Kyle Tucker set to depart in free agency, the Cubs need Crow-Armstrong to sustain his dominance over a full season to have a real shot at a title in 2026. Unfortunately, FanGraphs' Steamer projections see nothing but a decline in the center fielder's future.

Cubs' star Pete Crow-Armstrong predicted to regress badly in 2026

Steamer doesn't provide in-depth predictions for defense, though by defensive value alone, it expects PCA to lose some steam next year. There's a 6.9-point drop-off in overall defensive value baked into Crow-Armstrong's 2026 projections, hence why his fWAR is expected to fall from 5.4 to 3.3.

That seems steep for one of the fastest and most intuitive outfielders in the league, and it's likely that Crow-Armstrong can beat that projection handily. Even so, Steamer clearly still loves what he brings to the table on that side of the ball.

It's on offense where the regression is really expected to kick in. The 20 home runs (-11), 59 runs (-32), and 64 RBI (-31) Steamer foresees are all huge declines from 2025, even is his overall wRC+ is expected to land right around the same place (108 projected vs. 109).

That model even bakes in some positive regression in terms of walk and strikeout rate, suggesting that Crow-Armstrong's power is really set to fall off a cliff. Suffice to say, if that happens, the Cubs will be in a load of trouble next year.

Crow-Armstrong's predicted regression is actually part of a wider trend on the roster, as Steamer projects every position player on the team to perform worse in 2026, save for Matt Shaw. Besides PCA, Steamer expects Michael Busch and Carson Kelly to come back down to earth, and it doesn't provide much hope for an offensive turnaround from Dansby Swanson.

Nevertheless, this is just one projection system of many, and it's almost certainly weight Crow-Armstrong's weak second half more heavily than his elite first half. With some rest and offseason adjustments, it isn't too difficult to imagine the star center fielder finding another gear next season.