Cubs are staring down a 2026 disaster—and their bats are to blame

The Chicago Cubs offense is going to be worse next year simply by virtue of losing Kyle Tucker. There's really no debating that fact; even as he slumped something fierce in the second half, the star right fielder still hit .266/.377/.464 (136 wRC+) in 2025.

Even if top prospect Owen Caissie assumes the job and fellow rookie Moises Ballesteros commands more at-bats as a catcher or designated hitter, it'll be tough to replicate what Tucker brought to the middle of the lineup.

However, the Cubs are still set to return every other starter from 2025, which should be a good thing after the offense ranked fifth league-wide in runs scored (793), as well as seventh in OPS (.751) and sixth in wRC+ (110).

Well, early 2026 Steamer projections have been released, and they don't exactly share the same optimism.

FanGraphs' projections portend a power outage for the 2026 Cubs

It's true that a number of Cubs produced at career-best rates for stretches of the 2025 campaign, especially in the first half. Expecting them to keep up that level of production is probably a fool's errand.

Still, Steamer's projections have to be seen to be believed. The system suggests no one will hit more than 24 home runs (Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch) in 2026, and that the team-leader in wRC+ will be Busch with a 123 mark. Nico Hoerner (3.5 fWAR) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (3.3 fWAR) are the only players expected to exceed the 3.0 WAR mark, and that's mostly on the strength of their elite defense.

Just check out the variance in each holdover starter's production compared to their 2026 Steamer projections:

Steamer expects everyone besides Shaw to regress. The difference in cumulative WAR between those two columns is 6.6 by the way, which means the Cubs are projected to lose an equivalent to Corbin Carroll from their lineup before even accounting for Tucker.

Perhaps even more noticeably, the Cubs, who ranked sixth in baseball in home runs this year with 223, are projected to hit just 181 next year. That would be the equivalent of losing Juan Soto's power production.

Some of these regression fears are likely unfounded, but the Cubs did struggle badly on offense in the second half. It's unlikely that literally everyone in the lineup gets worse next year, but it isn't hard to imagine a chunk of that group struggling to maintain their elite production from the first half of 2025, especially if a better bench isn't brought in to support them.

Hopefully, the Cubs have a plan in place to not only replace Tucker, but also insulate them from any serious drop-offs from their remaining regulars. Otherwise, fans may be in for a rude awakening next season.