Cubs player most likely to be traded reveals a deeper farm system concern

It didn't take long for the Chicago Cubs to put a forgettable start to the season behind them. With their win against the Phillies on Wednesday, they've now rattled off eight wins in a row and risen to second place in the National League Central. The trade deadline is a long way off, but already, some clear areas of need have emerged. The cost, however, may be dire.

Cade Horton's season-ending Tommy John surgery has left a potential opening for another starter, perhaps even a controllable one who can join a rotation that will miss the young right-hander for most of next year and is facing multiple free agent departures at season's end. As seen at last year's deadline, however, that doesn't come cheap. Jed Hoyer punted on dealing for now-Cub Edward Cabrera or former Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore at the time due to the sky-high asking prices. Given how much more pressure is on this team to win and how important it is to set up next year's roster for success, though, he's more likely to pull the trigger this time.

If that happens, expect top prospect Jefferson Rojas to be a commonly asked-after name. ESPN's David Schoenfield recently released an early trade deadline preview examining what each team needs and who their most obvious trade candidates are, and Rojas drew the short straw. The reasoning is solid — all of Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Alex Bregman are locked up through 2029 at least, leaving no obvious spot for the young infielder in the near future. Nonetheless, it bodes ill for a farm system that is running low on top-shelf talent.

Depending on which ranking you prefer, Rojas is either one of or the outright best position player farmhand in a lackluster Cubs system. He's unranked on MLB Pipeline's Top 100, but lands above Kevin Alcantara and even much-lauded pitcher Jaxon Wiggins at #55 on FanGraphs' list and is often ranked as one of the only top-100 prospects Chicago has. He's also only just about to turn 21, despite already being at Double-A. Between his age and where he was developmentally, the hope has been for him to be part of the team's next wave of young talent, arriving as soon as 2027.

2026 has so far seen Rojas take a step forward in Knoxville, too. After a head-turning spring, the young infielder is slashing 294/.351/.618, good for a 146 wRC+ at the level. While his strikeout rate has spiked significantly in the early going, the improvements show him growing more into his hit tool and power and taking critical steps in his development. Combined with his slick defense, there's a lot to love about him. Teams will value him highly enough to give up a solid arm, but there's also nobody in the Cubs farm system like him at this moment.

The Cubs will face a tough decision with prospect Jefferson Rojas

If the Cubs eventually wanted to work Rojas in, the current infield setup would likely require him to ride the bench and get work in a part-time role, or remain in Triple-A to iron things out and get regular at-bats. That's admittedly not a great situation to be in. A perfect world would see him eventually replace Swanson starting in 2030, but that's a long way out for a player who might be ready next year. This is a team that is in win-now mode. They can't be thinking about some possibility in 2030, and instead have to process the tangible moves that can be made at this moment in time, even if the cost stings.

The farm isn't entirely barren despite its low ranking, either. Pedro Ramirez is enjoying an offensive breakout in Triple-A right now that may set up a big league future for him as a utility infielder. Despite a lower back injury, hopes are still high for what last year's first round pick, Ethan Conrad, can do when healthy, and outfielder Kane Kepley is also promising. The Cubs have also shown time and again that they're adept at scouting college bats, too, as seen with the fast turnarounds of infielders Matt Shaw and Cam Smith. Again, nobody quite has Rojas's combination of youth and potential, but there will be time to figure it out.

Giving up Rojas for a high-end rental would feel like a stretch given the potential. However, if another opportunity came up like the Cabrera trade, this might be the time to cash in. Maybe he turns into a star in another uniform one day, but it's not something that has to matter. It's just up to Hoyer and the Cubs to make sure that, if a deal is done, it's ultimately the right call. Fortunately, those decisions don't have to be made today.

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