Cubs' Jameson Taillon problem is actually a lot worse than you think

In terms of fWAR, Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon is now the worst pitcher in baseball.

The veteran took the loss on Friday against the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field, allowing four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of work, surrendering yet another home run on eight hits. He's allowed 17 home runs - which leads the majors - and his complete ineffectiveness has only exacerbated the Cubs' desperate search for reliable pitching.

With Cade Horton out for the year, Justin Steele sidelined until after the All-Star break and Matthew Boyd still working his way back from knee surgery, the starting rotation is running on fumes - and Taillon has been the furthest thing from a remedy imaginable.

Me telling you that Jameson Taillon has pitched poorly this year doesn't do much for you. But when you think through the two ways this season could go, given how feast or famine this Cubs team has been in the first two months, the problem feels even larger.

Path A: Craig Counsell, Ian Happ and every other member of the clubhouse who's insisted there's just too much talent in the room for this recent skid to last much longer proves correct. The Cubs get back on track, overcome their pitching injuries and the offense finally wakes up. Even if all that happens, they need more from Taillon. Like I said, you're still weeks from Boyd returning and, in a best-case scenario, probably a couple months from a Steele debut.

Through his first 10 starts, a 5.20 ERA actually paints a slightly better picture of his body of work. He's got a 6.47 FIP and his fastball is averaging lower than 92 MPH, which would be a career-low. His barrel rate ranks in the bottom four percent of the league and a .520 xSLG is in the bottom five percent of pitchers. He's allowing a ton of balls in the air - and way too many of them are finding the seats.

Nightmare scenario for Cubs fans is worth at least thinking about

Path B: This swoon continues and a season that began with such promise and excitement goes off the rails. The major losses on the pitching staff prove too much to overcome and the offense can't find its footing. Come July, Jed Hoyer has no choice but to unload what he can with an eye on 2027 and beyond.

An effective Taillon, pitching to his career marks, especially on an expiring contract, has decent value to playoff contenders. The 2026 version of him? Not so much. Even a prorated portion of his $18 million salary looks like dead weight and Chicago gets little outside of salary relief in a deadline move as sellers.

Now, let's hope the last couple weeks are just a bump in the road and brighter days are ahead. But regardless of whether the Cubs are good or bad, Taillon has a role to play - and with how he's pitching, it's hard to find a way for the team to extract any substantive value from him.

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