If the Cubs are banking on Jameson Taillon's reliability, that ignores a fatal flaw

It's becoming almost impossible to remember, but Jameson Taillon was arguably the Chicago Cubs' best and most reliable pitcher down the stretch of 2025. Behind a newly improved kick change, the veteran right-hander finally learned to stifle lefties, pitching to a 1.57 second-half ERA before receiving the ball in a do-or-die Game 3 in the NL Wild Card Series.

He threw four shutout innings in that 3-1 victory, and entering the 2026 season, it looked as though he'd be the anchor for the middle of the rotation in the final year of his current contract.

Then, reality set in.

Taillon owns a 4.97 ERA and 6.67 FIP through his first nine starts this year, and once again, lefties are the problem. They've slaughtered him to the tune of a .594 slugging percentage, and 10 of the 16 home runs he's allowed (a league-leading total) have been to hitters of the opposite handedness.

If it weren't for the litany of injuries that have ravaged the Cubs' rotation, it's possible that we'd be talking about the end of Taillon's tenure on the North Side of Chicago.

Jameson Taillon has broken down at the worst possible time for the Cubs

Of course, those injuries have happened, and they've wiped out a lot of the upside from the pitching staff. Things are so dire that Javier Assad is heading back to Iowa to stretch out as a starting pitcher, which is a commentary on the struggles of Taillon, but also just a necessity given the slumps Edward Cabrera and Colin Rea are fighting through as well.

Home run problems are nothing new for Taillon, but things have hit a fever pitch this year. He's allowed at least one homer in seven of his nine starts, and multiple bombs in five separate outings. His latest effort -- a five-homer disaster-class against the Chicago White Sox -- was the rancid icing on top of this spoiled cake, but even before that, he had surrendered 11 home runs in just over 45 innings pitched.

This is starting to become reminiscent of Shota Imanaga's meltdown before and during the 2025 playoffs, when the southpaw literally couldn't stop allowing long balls; over his final nine starts of the regular season, Imanaga allowed at least one home run in every appearance, including multi-homer efforts in five of his final six starts. Things got so bad that he lost his spot in the playoff rotation just before Game 5 of the NLDS.

Sound familiar? The stakes aren't nearly as high right now, and necessity is going to ensure Taillon doesn't lose his job any time soon, but it's frustratingly hard to trust him at the moment. A turnaround (á la Imanaga this year) may be coming, but you'd be hard-pressed to find any Cubs fans optimistic about that happening.

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