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Cubs have sudden chance to prove Reds hot start was never as real as it seemed

A true litmus test
ByJordan Campbell|
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Apr 15, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds third baseman Sal Stewart (27) high-fives teammates after defeating the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ball Park. Players and coaches will wear No. 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day around the league. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
Apr 15, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds third baseman Sal Stewart (27) high-fives teammates after defeating the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ball Park. Players and coaches will wear No. 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day around the league. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Each season, especially in April and May, the Cincinnati Reds make the case that they could be the biggest threat to the Chicago Cubs for winning the National League Central. The Cubs have been among the hottest teams in baseball over the last two weeks, but the Reds have been right there with them. With the two teams playing a four-game set at Wrigley Field this week, it will be an early measuring stick for each perceived contender.

There's reason to believe the Cubs could push the Reds this week closer to being a pretender than a true contender. To be clear, if the Reds simply tread water between now and the end of the regular season, there's a strong chance they are a National Wild Card team in October. But, for all the success they've had, there's a little bit of luck that has gone their way.

As ESPN's David Schoenfield points out, the Reds' offense certainly has some established impact hitters in shortstop Elly De La Cruz and rookie Sal Stewart, but collectively, they've struggled. Of all the teams with a .500 record or better, the Reds have scored the fewest runs this season, with 14. For reference, the Cubs have scored 185 times this year, the second most in all of baseball.

Cubs can expose the Reds this week at Wrigley Field

Similarly, the Reds' pitching staff has given up 163 runs this season. The only other team with a record of .500 or better to allow more runs than Cincinnati this season is the St. Louis Cardinals, with 166. The Cubs' pitching staff, for all their injuries, has allowed 143 runs this season.

Entering the weekend against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Reds were undefeated in one-run games. Their luck ran out on Sunday with a 1-0 loss. The Reds are also undefeated in two-run games this season, which tends to lean more toward a coin flip than a sign of being a good team.

The Cubs are well on the path toward being a great team this season. What comes with that territory is the ability to stomp out the pretenders. Craig Counsell and Co. have an opportunity to do that this week at Wrigley Field.

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