Cubs' former third round pick is already making waves in Arizona Fall League

There is rightfully a lot of pessimism about the Chicago Cubs' ability to develop pitching at the moment. While virtually all of their division rivals — the Milwaukee Brewers especially — have been pumping out quality homegrown arms in recent years, their farm system hasn't been particularly flush with obvious future starting rotation candidates. Last year proved particularly brutal, with their two best success stories in the majors, Justin Steele and Cade Horton, out for the season, and prospects Jaxon Wiggins, Kaleb Wing, and Dominick Reid, all dealing with various levels of ailments.

Heading into 2027, their MLB Pipeline ranking has four arms among their top ten, one of which is this year's first-round draftee Cade Townsend. Aside from Wiggins, who has injury concerns and command issues to work out yet, nobody is particularly close to coming up and contributing. If they want to keep their window open, the Cubs need more developmental wins and to improve at keeping players healthy. This year, that lack of success will be felt at the big league level with so many players departing in free agency and a rotation that desperately needs upside.

Rebuilding a farm system bereft of pitching takes time. The Cubs may not know for years whether the recent talent decisions they've made under VP of pitching Tyler Zombro will work out or at least provide more promise. Fortunately, the Arizona Fall League is giving them one exciting development early on with Reid. The team's 2025 third-round pick has been lights out for the Mesa Solar Sox through two starts, going 12 innings and only giving up two runs while striking out a league-leading 14.

Alongside Wing, Reid was circled as one of the arms to watch from the Cubs' 2025 class and, frankly, is the type they should be hitting on more often. None of the major evaluators had him as a top-200 talent in the draft, with MLB Pipeline ranking him highest at 208th. He was considered a scouting play given just how little playing time he recorded in his college career. The numbers were promising, though — a 3.26 ERA in 88 1/3 innings with a stellar 112 strikeouts at Abilene Christian.

His regular season this year was a tad disappointing, to say the least, with a shoulder impingement limiting him to just 49 2/3 innings. In that time, he threw for an okay but not great 4.17 ERA at High-A. As a more polished college arm with an elite 60-grade change-up, there was hope he'd hit the ground running at the lower levels, but it wasn't the season anyone dreamt of. With the AFL, he might have a chance to at least get back some of that experience he missed.

Cubs' former third-round pick is already turning heads on the mound in the Arizona Fall League

Two starts in is too early to say anything definitive, but Reid's already showing the fruits of playing around with his arsenal of pitches. He's now up to six unique pitch types instead of being primarily a fastball-changeup hurler, and while he himself admitted in an MLB.com article that there's work to be done in developing those other grips, they're working so far. Even with a four-seamer that runs in the low to mid-90s, he's finding ways to get swing=and=miss off some premium prospects in the game, like Sebastian Walcott and Aidan Miller, thanks in part to his extreme extension.

Mesa Solar Sox manager Daniel Wasinger has been very high on Reid throughout their time working together this fall, praising his ability to attack the zone in just about any situation. "He's doing an incredible job with the run game when runners get on," he said. "He's just going out there with confidence, throwing strikes, getting outs, and that's all you could ask for." He sees real big-league upside in the right-hander with more time honing his new, expanded pitch mix.

For right now, MLB has Reid way down on the prospect list at #28. If his AFL performance keeps up and he carries that success into the 2027 minor league season, however, that could change quickly. The Cubs need their reach for him in the draft to start paying off, and he may be on track to make that happen as he makes up for lost time.

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