Cubs fans might not realize the cost of signing a qualifying offer reject

Major League Baseball confirmed last week that the qualifying offer would be set at $22.025MM this offseason. As a reminder, a player who has previously had a qualifying offer attached to their free-agent profile is not eligible to receive the qualifying offer again, and a team can not place a qualifying offer on any player they acquired at the MLB trade deadline. For the Chicago Cubs, there are really only two players who could receive a qualifying offer from the team this offseason.

The first, and most obvious, candidate is Kyle Tucker. Tucker is to become a free agent for the first time in his career, and while the Cubs aren't likely to be the final bidder for the All-Star outfield, they will ensure some compensation for themselves once he signs elsewhere.

The other candidate is Shota Imanaga. The struggles Imanaga faced at the end of the season certainly complicated the decision with his option this offseason. If the Cubs decline the three-year club option, and Imanaga, in turn, declines the player option, he will become a free agent. In that scenario, it would seem likely that the Cubs would apply the qualifying offer to the veteran starting pitcher.

Signing a qualifying offer reject could cost the Cubs more than expected

On the other end of the qualifying offer discussion is the idea of the Cubs signing a player who rejected one from their previous team this offseason. The Cubs find themselves in the group of teams that did not receive revenue-sharing funds this season and didn't pay the competitive balance tax. As such, the penalty for the Cubs in signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would be their second-highest 2026 draft pick and $500K from their international signing pool.

While the Cubs, in recent years, have avoided players with a qualifying offer attached, this offseason could be different. Again, assuming Tucker signs elsewhere, the Cubs will be gaining a compensation pick. In other words, the penalty may not be felt as much this offseason as it would have been last offseason.

At the top of the list of potential free agents the Cubs might be interested in, and could receive the qualifying offer, is Dylan Cease. The Cubs have a need for a swing-and-miss in their starting rotation, and signing Cease would be the clearest path to addressing that need. While that would potentially require a level of money the Cubs haven't been willing to spend in the past, it would also require the Cubs to go out of their comfort zone with their approach to qualifying offers.