Cubs face an uneasy Freddy Peralta question after latest contract projection

The Chicago Cubs need starting pitching so badly this offseason that they're not really in a position to be picky. If a quality arm becomes available for a reasonable price, they have to jump at the opportunity to add them.

"Reasonable price" is the operative phrase there, though. The Cubs need to add a lot of pitchers -- their entire rotation from the end of the season is set to hit free agency -- and they can't blow the whole budget (be it monetary or prospect capital) on one guy. That could complicate their pursuit of a few aces, even those below the Tarik Skubal tier.

Take Freddy Peralta, for instance. The longtime Brewers ace went on to win the ALCS MVP award with the Rays this year (following an ugly in-between stint with the Mets), clearly making him one of the best available pitchers on the market. According to The Athletic's Jim Bowden, that status is going to earn him a contract in the range of five years and $140 million.

Is that really the kind of deal the Cubs should be pursuing this offseason?

Freddy Peralta remains an obvious Cubs target, but only at a reasonable price point

There's obviously a difference between "can" and "should" when it comes to free-agent matters. Even with the upcoming lockout looming ever closer, the Cubs absolutely can swing big with nine-figure deals; their projected 2027 luxury tax payroll is currently sitting about $100 million below their final total in 2026, per FanGraphs. That's a lot of room with which to work, even if ownership mandates a more cautious approach just in case the next collective bargaining agreement imposes harsher sanctions on big spenders.

Thus, the main question with Peralta is whether the Cubs should make a serious push for him in free agency. His overall numbers improved with the Rays -- his ERA went from 4.99 in New York to 3.25 in Tampa -- but a lot of his underlying metrics suffered. His strikeout, walk, and barrel rates all got worse following the mid-season trade, and he started to benefit from some incredible BABIP fortune. There's actually a case to be made that, removing luck and defense from the equation, he was a better pitcher with the Mets than he was with the Rays.

Of course, you can't take those things out of play when the games are going, and Peralta would probably do just fine pitching in front of the Cubs' superlative defense. He's also been pretty successful at Wrigley Field throughout his career (4.18 ERA in 51⅔ innings) and he established a strong reputation for himself as a big-game pitcher with his performance this October.

There's absolutely some merit to giving him a nine-figure contract and entrusting him to lead the rotation for the next half-decade. But it's also worth acknowledging that $140 million is probably a massive overpay for the 30-year-old, which might mean that it'd behoove the Cubs to get a deal done only if his market doesn't develop as expected.

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