Cubs' 2027 plans hinge on Braxton Garrett's readiness to enter the spotlight

Amidst a bevy of win-now moves at the trade deadline -- ones which cost the organization top prospects like Moises Ballesteros, Brett Bateman, and Jefferson Rojas -- there was one trade that zigged while the rest of the Chicago Cubs were zagging.

Braxton Garrett didn't play much of a role down the stretch with his new team, making just one long-relief appearance on the final day of the regular season to save the bullpen some bullets ahead of the playoffs. Otherwise, he spent all of his time in the organization in Iowa, recording a 4.11 ERA and 4.99 FIP.

Of course, the front office didn't surrender a legitimate prospect in Jonathon Long (and Jace Beck) just for some Triple-A pitching depth. Having had a chance to work with the 29-year-old left-hander for roughly half a season now, it's clear that the plan is (and always was) to implement Garrett as a fixture in the rotation starting in 2027.

By default or merit, Braxton Garrett will hold an important role within Cubs' rotation moving forward

It's true that, at least on the surface, Garrett got worse after the trade. He was shredding Triple-A hitters with the Marlins before Aug. 3, pitching to a 2.90 ERA (4.10 FIP) over 77⅔ innings. In Iowa, he started walking more hitters, saw his ERA and FIP spike, and allowed a much higher rate of home runs.

So, what's to get excited about? Well, the hallmarks that mae Garrett such an intriguing young arm prior to his elbow surgery in late 2024 are still present. His groundball rate remained above 50%, which will obviously play well in front of the Cubs' tremendous infield defense. He also displayed some excellent control after a six-walk debut, reminiscent of his best years from 2022-24 when his walk rate sat below 5%.

Of course, even if he doesn't get back to his peak level, he may become a permanent member of the starting five purely out of necessity.

Remember, the team's entire starting rotation from the end of the season is currently slated to hit free agency; that group includes Kevin Gausman, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Aaron Civale, and Colin Rea. That's a mass exodus of talent, one which will necessitate an overhaul this offseason.

Still, Jed Hoyer can't put together an entirely new rotation in just one winter and expect to have success. Javier Assad is still around, and it's fair to hope that at least one of Justin Steele, Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton, and Ben Brown will get healthy and perform like their ace-selves after injury-plagued campaigns in 2026. Even then, that's a whole heck of a lot of uncertainty surrounding the weakest point on the depth chart.

Hence why Garrett is so vital to the stability of the rotation. He probably won't return to his pre-Tommy-John form in 2023 when he made 30 starts and logged a 3.66 ERA, but even just fitting the mold as a groundball-heavy, no-walks pitcher would go a long toward making the Cubs' pitching situation not seem so dire.

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